Threats from the Thaw

Dhaka is bracing up to receive Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, who was earlier scheduled to arrive on April 27 for a two-day visit to discuss a wide range of bilateral issues between the two countries. This visit assumes significant importance in view of the recently concluded visit of Pakistani Foreign Secretary Ambassador, Amna Baloch, to Bangladesh for the Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) meeting. The Pakistani Minister’s planned trip to Dhaka, after a long gap of 15 years, signals a growing thaw between the two countries, which had seen 15 years of complete inertia during Sheikh Hasina’s extended tenure in power, when Islamabad-Dhaka relations were essentially in cold storage. However, as this piece goes to press, the proposed visit has been postponed due to “unforeseen circumstances,” though it is expected to take place in the foreseeable future.

The impending visit is also indicative of Islamabad’s determination to come as close to Dhaka as possible, particularly after Bangladesh distanced itself from India following Sheikh Hasina’s exit in August last year. Additionally, due to Indo-Pak tensions in the aftermath of the Pahalgam carnage, Pakistan is likely to make extra efforts to reach out to Dhaka for diplomatic and moral support.

To highlight the key points of the freshly concluded visit by the Pakistani Foreign Secretary to Dhaka, it is pertinent to note that both countries agreed, inter alia, to establish direct shipping communication between Karachi and Chittagong ports, direct air links, deeper bilateral trade, visa facilitation, mutual trust-building, and enhanced people-to-people contact. On its part, Bangladesh agreed to extend technical training in the fields of fisheries and maritime studies. In addition, issues such as exchanges of artists and cultural personalities were discussed threadbare and included vigorous media cooperation between Islamabad and Dhaka.

Importantly for Bangladesh, Dhaka reiterated its longstanding demand for an apology from Pakistan for its egregious actions during the 1971 uprising, including genocide and the violation of thousands of women. In this context, it is worth recalling that during his 2002 visit to Dhaka, then-President General Pervez Musharraf expressed “regret” but stopped short of offering a formal apology. It is therefore evident that Bangladesh’s demand for an apology, in its enthusiasm, was faint and feeble, appearing merely ritualistic and aimed at fulfilling a formality. Nevertheless, both sides were on the same page about continuing dialogue to pursue their unfinished agenda. It is also relevant to note that Bangladesh has a pending claim of USD 4.52 billion as part of its share of pre-1971 assets and compensation for a cyclone that had struck the region. Furthermore, there are still 3,24,147 stranded Pakistanis residing in 79 camps across fourteen districts of Bangladesh, of whom only 26,941 have so far been repatriated. The Foreign Secretary-level meeting between Bangladesh’s Foreign Secretary Md Jashim Uddin and his Pakistani counterpart Ambassador Amna Baloch ended on a cordial note, although the Pakistani side did not agree to any mention of the 1971 atrocities in the joint communiqué issued at the end of the visit.

Against this backdrop, the anticipated visit (now deferred to a later date) of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, to Dhaka suggests that sufficient groundwork has already been laid during the Foreign Secretary-level talks, setting the stage for further strengthening of bilateral relations. Among the various issues on the agenda, Pakistan also aims to give a robust boost to its trade ties with Bangladesh by planning large-scale exports of cotton, sugar, rice, and wheat. In 2023–24, Bangladesh exported goods worth USD 61.98 million to Pakistan, while imports from Pakistan stood at USD 627.8 million.

While no formal agenda for the minister-level talks has been received so far, Pakistan—especially with Hasina no longer at the helm—will try its utmost to utilise this opportunity of its minister’s visit to woo Bangladesh, aiming to make it a stronger ally and partner, countering India and attempting to undo the well-cemented India-Bangladesh relationship that was on a firm footing barely a year ago.

Meanwhile, there has been a great sense of euphoria in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi press about the “successful” visit of the Pakistani Foreign Secretary, as well as the expected visit of Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar. Almost all print and electronic media outlets have hailed the visit. Media on both sides seem particularly pleased with Pakistan’s “rapprochement” with Bangladesh. For example, Dawn, the prominent Pakistani daily, in its editorial (April 21), described the new-found relationship between the two countries as deserving far more attention than it has received in recent years. It also claims that the foundations for reconciliation have now been laid, and it is time to build upon them.

From the Indian perspective, the growing Pakistan-Bangladesh relationship has several security implications. Pakistan, a frustrated state having lost Bangladesh 54 years ago, is in a hurry to make up for the humiliation, and its establishment—likely with the proactive help of the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)—must be preparing a carefully crafted blueprint to adversely affect the geopolitical and security interests of India. Such nefarious plans had not succeeded over the past 15 years, thanks to Hasina’s zero-tolerance policy towards the sheltering of terrorists or any activities linked to them. With the regime change and deepening bilateral ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh, one might now witness a polarisation of communal forces, religious fanatics, and anti-India activists joining hands to target India through rhetoric and other subversive activities.

In the meantime, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif highlighted the “affection” between the people of Pakistan and Bangladesh at a reception celebrating the 54th National and Independence Day of Bangladesh, where he was the chief guest, hosted by Bangladesh High Commissioner Muhammad Iqbal Hussain Khan. This development is important in light of the Pahalgam killings and Pakistan’s alarmingly belligerent stance towards India. Utilising the opportunity, the Minister lauded Bangladesh’s “significant progress” in the socio-economic sector. Highlighting the historical ties and bilateral relations between Pakistan and Bangladesh, he emphasised the necessity of further strengthening relations to enhance development cooperation between the peoples of both countries. In addition to the Defence Minister, federal ministers including Ahsan Iqbal Chaudhary, Tariq Fazal Chaudhary, Moeen Wattoo, Ham Kamal, Khel Das Kohistani, Malik Rasheed Ahmad, Qaiser Ahmad Sheikh, and Muhammad Junaid Anwar were also present at the celebrations. The Bangladesh High Commissioner underscored Bangladesh’s desire to maintain strong and friendly relations with Pakistan, while stressing the need for enhanced cooperation and mutual understanding. Crucially, Bangladesh High Commissioner Muhammad Iqbal Hossain Khan paid deep respect to the freedom fighters and those who participated in the 2024 mass uprising. He stressed the need to realise the aspirations of the people of both countries by strengthening bilateral relations. This statement appears extraordinary and gives the impression of overdoing.

These developments are significant and should not be ignored by either diplomats or Indian security agencies. Under the circumstances, a microscopic watch on the situation arising from the Pakistan-Bangladesh combine, spiralling to alarming proportions, is certainly called for.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal