The Mirage Collapses

The Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar has shattered assumptions about the safety of Arab states, especially the Gulf monarchies, in the face of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive policies. For years, leaders in the region believed that diplomatic normalisation with Israel, combined with billions of dollars funnelled into Washington’s coffers—and even extravagant gestures like Qatar’s gift of a luxury plane to Donald Trump—would buy them security. This week proved otherwise.

Netanyahu has delivered a blunt message: Arab states that show sympathy for the Palestinian cause will pay a price. He makes no distinction between countries that are “friendly” to Israel and those that openly back Palestine. Doha has now learned that even alliances with Washington and even hosting CENTCOM’s regional headquarters offer no shield against Israeli firepower.

The attack on Qatar is more than just another strike in a long and bloody conflict. It represents a turning point for the Gulf. The notion that proximity to the United States or diplomatic ties with Israel insulate monarchies from regional upheaval has collapsed. Netanyahu has redrawn the rules of the game—and the Gulf states are now left to question whether they are players or targets.

The Gulf monarchies, defying widespread public support for the Palestinian cause, believed that securing peace with Israel would counter threats from Iran. However, Netanyahu has signalled that they are not immune to attack.

David Mednicoff, Associate Professor of Middle Eastern Studies and Public Policy at UMass Amherst, says: “All this is more true in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s attack in Qatar—the first time Israel has launched a direct strike within a Gulf Arab state. That action, even if ostensibly directed at Hamas, is likely to exacerbate tensions not only with Qatar but also place increasing stress on the calculus allied Gulf Arab countries make in their dealings with Israel.”

The threat from a weakened Iran may have lessened, but Israel’s recent aggressiveness has heightened security concerns across the Gulf states. Those Gulf countries that established diplomatic ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords now find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place. Their silence on the ongoing genocide in Gaza has drawn criticism and diminished their standing in the Muslim world, while at the same time, the looming threat of Israeli strikes has become a stark reality.

The U.S. reaction has been notably ambiguous. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that “unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a sovereign nation and close ally of the United States that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals.” This lukewarm response raises doubts about historical U.S. security guarantees for its Gulf Arab allies.

The perception of the U.S. as a reliable protector of Gulf states has been eroding for years. Now, the region is confronting a harsh reality: no matter how much money they invest in Washington or how lavishly they court U.S. leaders, when it comes to Israel, they cannot count on American protection. The recent Israeli strikes were about more than Hamas—they were a stark demonstration of Israel’s growing dominance and influence in the Gulf region.

Views expressed are personal