Steady, Strong, Strategic

India’s latest quarterly GDP figures—clocking in at a robust 7 per cent+ range according to government estimates—have once again delivered a polite but firm reminder to global pessimists: rumours of India’s economic demise have been greatly exaggerated. At a time when advanced economies are flirting with recession and emerging markets are dodging geopolitical curveballs, India has not only kept its growth engine humming but has added a bit of turbocharge.

A defining driver of this momentum is the government’s unrelenting push on infrastructure. Public capital expenditure has grown by over 30 per cent year-on-year in recent budgets, and the results are showing. Highways stretching across states, new airports, record railway modernisation, port capacity upgrades, and the expansion of freight corridors have collectively injected life into construction, logistics, and ancillary industries. In an era where global supply chains behave like temperamental teenagers—unpredictable, emotional, and easily disrupted—India’s domestic capex cycle has served as the stabilising adult in the room.

The manufacturing sector, too, delivered a commendable performance this quarter. Manufacturing GVA growth remained strong, supported by the electronics, auto, and pharmaceuticals sectors. With PLI schemes worth over Rs 2 lakh crore nudging firms to ramp up production, and global supply-chain diversification working in India’s favour, factories finally seem to be running with purpose—and not just during ministerial visits. Capacity utilisation has edged above 74 per cent, and easing commodity prices have offered much-needed relief for industrial players.

And then, there’s the impact of GST reforms. While critics once claimed GST would kneecap India’s economy, the recent GST rate rationalisations—cutting rates on essential and mass-consumption items—have helped support consumption at a time when global inflation was squeezing wallets. With monthly GST collections averaging around Rs 1.6–1.7 lakh crore, the system is not only stabilising but thriving. Lower rates on select goods have encouraged compliance, broadened the base, and boosted consumer sentiment. In short: fewer tax slabs, more tax paid—an equation that critics still find harder to understand than quantum physics.

These strong quarterly GDP numbers are likely to push India’s annual growth trajectory comfortably above earlier forecasts. With industry and services ticking upward and government capex continuing its steady march, the full-year growth rate could remain in the 6.8–7.2 per cent zone. That’s not just healthy—by global standards, that’s practically athletic.

The timing is also geopolitically convenient. As the U.S. revisits tariff policies (yet again), India’s economic resilience provides a cushion. A stronger domestic economy allows India to bargain from a place of confidence, not compulsion. Manufacturing strength helps position India as a credible alternative in global supply chains—something the U.S. is increasingly keen on. And strong growth plus robust tax collections ensure India doesn’t enter trade negotiations looking like the weaker party in need of tariff mercy.

Critics who predicted collapse are now left explaining why a “dead economy” keeps posting some of the world’s highest growth figures. Perhaps the economy didn’t read their reports. Perhaps it simply doesn’t speak fluent pessimism.

Overall, this quarter’s GDP data does more than highlight economic strength—it underscores strategic maturity. Infrastructure spending has delivered a growth spine, manufacturing revival has added muscle, GST rationalisation has improved circulation, and geopolitical agility has kept the entire organism healthy.

India’s economy isn’t just alive—it’s stretching, jogging, and occasionally sprinting. And for those still preparing obituaries for it, this quarter offers a gentle suggestion: it might be time to update the draft.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is the Founder & Director, Build India Foundation and is also a Public Policy expert