State of jeopardy

Hamas' attack on Israel last year was a turning point in West Asia's geopolitical landscape. It led to a year of heightened conflict, involving the direct participation of Iran, the assassinations of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran's retaliatory missile strike on Israel on October 2. As events in the region continue to unfold, the implications of these occurrences—especially for countries in the Indian subcontinent—seem profound.

Earlier, the preceding year offered hope for regional stability, with the thaw in Iran-Saudi Arabia relations, Syria's return to the Arab League, and potential for Israel to normalise relations with Arab states. However, the October 7 attack and subsequent events of 2024 have sharply altered this landscape.

The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel—the deadliest since the Second Intifada—left over a thousand Israelis dead and saw more than 250 people taken hostage. In response, Israel launched a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza, resulting in over 41,000 Palestinian fatalities and the displacement of nearly 2.3 million Gazans. According to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief Herzi Halevi, this military campaign aimed to dismantle Hamas' operational capabilities across the region.

In June this year, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in a precision strike believed to have been conducted by Israeli operatives, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement. The operation came in response to Hamas’ increasing role in escalating violence. This assassination was followed by the death of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in August. The IDF had long regarded Nasrallah as a key figure in Hezbollah’s actions against Israel, including missile attacks from southern Lebanon.

The deaths of these two leaders dealt a significant blow to Iran’s proxy networks. However, Iranian officials, including Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), vowed that the "martyrdom" of Haniyeh and Nasrallah would not go unanswered. Their deaths further inflamed tensions and led to a marked escalation in violence.

The most dramatic shift in the conflict came on October 2, when Iran launched a massive missile and drone strike on Israel. Over 100 ballistic missiles and drones targeted key Israeli military installations. Iranian state media cited the attack as direct retaliation for the killings of Haniyeh and Nasrallah, claiming that "Zionist crimes would not go unanswered."

Meanwhile, the Iran-Saudi rapprochement, heralded as a major diplomatic breakthrough in 2023, is now under considerable strain. Saudi Arabia, while maintaining neutrality in the Israel-Hamas conflict, is increasingly concerned about the wider implications of Iranian aggression. Iran’s actions, including attacks on Israel and the continued involvement of its proxy groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, still threaten to destabilise the entire region.

In response to these tensions, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated, “While we seek peace and stability in West Asia, any unilateral actions that escalate conflict will be met with the necessary countermeasures to protect Saudi interests.” Riyadh remains cautious but is believed to be strengthening its defensive measures against potential Iranian threats.

Efforts to revive US-Iran diplomacy have also wavered amid rising tensions. While Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian initially offered some hope for re-engaging with the U.S. to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the current conflict has made such efforts almost impossible. Following Iran’s missile strike, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned Iran’s actions, stating, "The United States will support Israel’s right to defend itself, and we will ensure that Iran’s aggression does not go unchecked.” With both countries involved, prospects for a diplomatic resolution appear increasingly distant, further adversely affecting the region and complicating U.S. efforts to contain the tension.

India’s strategic interests in West Asia have become increasingly vulnerable due to the escalating conflict. Historically, India relied heavily on Iran for oil imports, but U.S. sanctions forced India to halt Iranian oil purchases in 2019. With the current conflict, any hope of resuming oil imports from Iran seems remote, as tensions between Tehran and Washington show no signs of easing.

Additionally, the India-Iran Chabahar port project, which holds strategic significance for India’s access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, is potentially at risk. Sanctions on Iran have already slowed progress, and the ongoing conflict may complicate matters further.

The new India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced during the G20 summit in September 2023, also faces challenges. This ambitious project, aimed at bolstering connectivity between India, the Middle East, and Europe, requires political and security stability—something West Asia currently lacks. India must therefore cautiously navigate its investments and partnerships in the region to protect its long-term strategic objectives.

West Asia hosts over 8.9 million Indian migrants, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Any further escalation of violence could endanger their safety and disrupt remittances, a critical source of income for many Indian families. Indian authorities have stated that they are closely monitoring the situation, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar noting, “India is prepared to protect the safety and interests of its citizens abroad. We remain engaged with regional stakeholders to ensure stability.”

One year after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, West Asia is in deeper turmoil today. The assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, coupled with Iran’s October 2 missile attack on Israel, threaten the entire region's stability. The near collapse of Iran-Saudi diplomacy, strained US-Iran relations, and the impact on global energy supplies and strategic projects like Chabahar have further complicated the geopolitical landscape. As West Asia teeters on the brink of wider conflict, India needs to strike a delicate balance to safeguard its energy security, protect its diaspora, and pursue its well-laid-out geopolitical plans.

The next phase of this ongoing crisis seems to rely heavily on the actions of regional powers and the international community. The path forward remains fraught with uncertainty, but one thing is clear: the consequences of the October 7 attack continue to reverberate throughout West Asia, with no immediate resolution in sight.

In a recent separate development which threatens the region’s stability, a terror attack at Turkey Aerospace Industries provoked Turkey to carry out military offensives targeting Kurdish strongholds in Iraq and Syria. This may further worsen the situation, making the region a cauldron of more violent happenings.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal