Slow strides towards peace

As far as the Korean Peninsula is concerned, one can declare war in overnight but can't declare peace which can only be built through a gradual process of mutual trust among the parties. The second summit at Hanoi (Vietnam) on February 28, 2019, between the United States and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) i.e., North Korea, unsurprisingly, falls under this category. At the Summit, though the US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un failed to reach an agreement on denuclearisation, the meeting and goodwill gesture shown by the two leaders displayed advancement in their high-wire diplomacy. The first North Korea-US summit was held in Singapore in June 2018 where President Trump and Kim agreed for the complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula. Subsequently, the US suspended the annual joint naval exercises with South Korea by sighting that they are highly 'provocative and expensive'. As a reciprocal action, North Korea has not made any military provocation during this period and it is almost more than one year since North Korea conducted its last missile test in November 2017. It also dismantled some of its missile and nuclear facilities including Sohae satellite launch station.

Nuclear bargain

During the Hanoi Summit, US demands comprised for irreversible steps to scrap North Korea's nuclear arsenal, including dismantling its Yongbyon nuclear complex. Since North Korea has been pushed into a corner by the sanctions for its previous actions, easing of the sanctions has been a top priority for Pyongyang during the summit. In fact, recently, North Korea requesting humanitarian assistance from the United Nations to feed its people betrays the grave situation prevailing in the impoverished country. External trade volume fell significantly with an export ban on coal, steel, fisheries and textile products. As a result, the entire industrial production in North Korea has crashed. Further, due to workers ban under United Nations (UN) resolution-2397, other nations including its trusted ally China sent back tens of thousands of North Korean workers to home, which eventually cut off another key source of hard currency to North Korea. In the summit, both parties expressed their points of concern but could not conclude an agreement this time. They, thereby, left an opportunity for a continuation of the dialogue. Perhaps, Trump administration likely calculating a nuclear agreement with North Korea could help to boost the president's chances for re-election in 2020. If this is true, then there would be some tangible outcome expected before the US presidential elections next year.

The point at this juncture is not whether the international community or Washington can trust North Korea's efforts or not. Due to the severity of the imposed sanctions, factories have closed and military units are resorting to charcoal-engine vehicles and ox-driven carts for transport. Based on the existing economic turmoil, North Korea is seeking to ease some of the economic sanctions which would affect ordinary people's economy and livelihood. Pyongyang has been clear about exactly what it wants. They will not unilaterally disarm unless it receives something from Washington. They want a staged process where they give a little and get something in return. It means right now Pyongyang feels that it has done enough to warrant sanctions relief. However, the US has also been absolute on its stand by stating sanctions relief can be possible only on the grounds of "complete denuclearisation". President Trump has been under huge pressure at home with his opponents accusing him of selling away the massive US strategic advantage vis-à-vis North Korea in exchange for worthless concessions.

Experiences in the past

In the past, the goal of the outside actors, particularly the US, was somehow to bring North Korea to the negotiation table and setting an agenda for North Korea's denuclearisation process. In fact, Washington loomed the policy of "maximum pressure" by imposing severe economic sanction on Pyongyang through the UN. However, the confidence-building measures initiated by the North Korea including scraping of few nuclear and missile facilities and the ongoing inter-Korean rapprochement process is unable to impress the conventional wisdom and hardliners of the US and they still doubt the sincerity of the North Korean regime. However, by analysing the past experience, Pyongyang possesses a positive reciprocal track record with Washington. During September 27, 1991, President George H.W. Bush announced the removal of all US Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) from South Korea. Within a month, North Korea halted the reprocessing of spent fuel to extract plutonium. In early 1992, President Bush announced the suspension of the annual Team Spirit joint military exercises. That very day, a DPRK Foreign Ministry spokesman announced its intention to sign a safeguards agreement with the IAEA. This sequence of events in the past strongly suggests North Korea's willingness to accommodate the US on verification in return for US steps to end enmity through reciprocity.

Conclusion

The easing of some sanctions which are affecting the livelihoods of North Koreans is an urgent point of need. It motivates the North Korean leadership to move forward for the denuclearisation process. Pyongyang has called for a step-by-step model, matching each denuclearisation act to a specific concession, which would be implemented over a longer timeline to ensure the stability of the denuclearisation process in the Korean Peninsula. We can't overlook that it took several decades again for the US to accept North Korea as a negotiating partner and Pyongyang's ability to come up with a tangible solution to the nuclear crises in the region. In this perspective, the ongoing rapprochement formula would defiantly yield a substantial outcome in the near future and certainly, the US holds the key to moving the peace process forward.

(Dr. Sudhakar Vaddi is an academician and has been working on the Korean Peninsula for more than a decade. He is a recipient of Korea Foundation Scholarship. The views expressed are strictly personal)