Securing the stage

India is already on the election mode now amid hectic politicking with political parties, activists and cadres pitching in with full steam to score a convincing victory over their adversaries. The battle lines are clearly drawn and the stage is set to witness the most spectacular democratic exercise in the not so distant future.

All said, its not only the Election Commission or the Indian government agencies which are watchful about the upcoming mega event but security agencies equally have an arduous task at hand to ensure that the elections pass off without any security hitch or undesirable activity casting aspersion on the organising ability or efficiency of those responsible for holding a peaceful election.

Other than the internal outfits keeping the happenings related to the polls under alert, several foreign countries and their agencies are also keenly observing the election-related developments. They are constantly undertaking appraisals of the fall out particularly on the possibilities of violence emanating out of communal problems, terror happenings and other matters of security concern. The foreign powers, needless to underline, evince keen interest in anything concerning India possibly due to their geopolitical interests as well as for economic investments.

Several foreign countries must have commenced their exercise in evaluating Indian security scenario during the elections long back, collecting hard information through their collaborators and proactive intelligence gathering to get updated with the happenings to be.

Here, it would be pertinent to state that Dan Coats, Director of the US National Intelligence, stated as early as in January this year that elections in India increase the possibility of communal violence ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in May. Coats made this important statement as part of the US Intelligence community and intelligence briefing through a written statement in the Senate as part of the exercise studying prevailing threats in the year 2019.

The aforesaid statement was made in the presence of CIA Director, Gina Haspel who had then just returned from India possibly after getting the latest inputs from her officers in the US Embassy, New Delhi, FBI Director Christopher Wray and Defence Intelligence Agency Director, Robert Ashley. Such high profile presence of important functionaries is enough to confirm that the US, like some other countries, are already focussed on watching Indian elections and are apprehensive of security matters including communal violence.

Coats further pointed out that if communal clashes do happen, India-linked Islamic terror groups may feel emboldened to expand their influence. However, in the same vein, it is safely assumed that Indian intelligence and security agencies are professionally competent and will not lower their guard in undertaking an evaluation of the ground realities ahead of the elections, thus, diffusing any communal tension perceived to be brewing in the communally sensitive places, especially in communally-prone districts in Uttar Pradesh which has a history of communal and caste-related clashes.

According to Coats, cross border terrorism may be unleashed by Pakistan due to strained relations between New Delhi and Islamabad. This is likely to include firing across the LoC and related misadventures in and around the elections as it will be opportune, then, to strike. Such US assessments could be exaggerated and hyped but given the nefarious machinations by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), it can be estimated that the ISI, in all likelihood, will try its best to create disturbances during the elections in an apparent attempt to reassert its ugly presence which got exposed in the February 14 attacks on the CRPF at Pulwama leading to diplomatic isolation and alienation of Pakistan. Its ISI network must be weighing on priority in the minds of the concerned Indian intelligence outfits meriting immediate neutralisation to prevent damage to the national security interests. The counter-intelligence apparatus must be in the process of adjusting its antenna to address the ISI menace.

With the security scenario in mind, intelligence at all levels, both at the central and state, must act in consonance to pick up the scent early and foil any attempts to disturb the elections by the hostile quarters. State intelligence machinery at the district level must also be sensitised to remain alert to deal with any terror threat. Within some places in our vast country there is a shortage of staff, and hence just retired officials, especially from the intelligence fraternity, could be appropriated with their services to beef up surveillance and action.

During this election, unlike that of 2014, Social Media is today very active and its abuse is equally rampant. This needs extra watch lest it has security implications adversely affecting the elections from the point of view of peace and tranquil. Pulwama (Feb 14) and Christchurch (March 15) fatal attacks are still fresh in mind and the modus operandi employed in these places should not be allowed to the advantage of the perpetrators of terror with mala fide intentions of sabotaging the elections.

Indian Security and intelligence outfits, therefore, have a huge security challenge in front of them to ensure a peaceful election. Given their track record of keeping the radicalisation well under check and preventing the flow of radicals to join the ISIS, it is hoped that the threat perceptions and security commitments will be met with finesse by our anti-terror security forces and 2019 will see hassle-free parliamentary elections. It is a tall order but certainly doable.

(The author is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor of Mauritius. The views expressed are strictly personal)