Rolling back the anarchy

The whole of last week, Bangladesh saw a series of bloody pitched battles between the Police, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), and other security forces taking on the protesting students mainly in the capital city of Dhaka and other parts of the country. Police shot dead many agitators, and there were armed skirmishes between the Chhatra League, the students’ wing of the ruling Awami League (AL), and the elements opposed to the imposition of a quota in government jobs. This was the primary cause of the violence, leading to more than a hundred deaths and wanton destruction of public property.

To recapitulate, the government under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had reserved quotas for the descendants of the freedom fighters, which incurred the wrath of the huge number of unemployed youth who remain vehemently opposed to the reservations, leading to such a violent standoff. Bangladesh has a recorded history of political agitations spearheaded by students, whether it was the language movement of 1952 against West Pakistan or the liberation struggle of 1971. In the recent case of quota agitation too, students took the lead, but unfortunately, the movement was surreptitiously hijacked by anti-liberation and religious fundamentalists, drawing a clear divide and demonstrating a kind of schism.

So many deaths, unending violence, and incidents like the storming of the Narsingdi prison and the freeing of a large number of captives show that the law and order machinery had completely collapsed, and the anti-government and anti-quota protesters had a field day. On their part, Police and RAB also exercised little or no discretion or even application of mind, resulting in ruthless killings and perhaps disproportionate use of force. At one point, it looked as if complete anarchy was prevailing, and in the wake of the Internet and other means of communication being suspended, more chaos seemed on the anvil.

After Hasina’s fourth consecutive win in the elections in January this year, the opposition parties and their cohorts were visibly frustrated, and they were waiting in the wings for an opportune moment to strike and corner Hasina. Occasionally, they were critical of her, accusing her of a complete ‘sell out’ to India. Coincidentally, after her return from a recent visit to China, particularly curtailing her visit, the quota protests sprang up, and the same anti-Hasina and anti-India elements took over the agitation, and the violence saw a complete confrontation with no signs of abatement. The students’ deaths caused by police firing evoked sympathy from the general public, who openly supported the students, criticising the government and the police. That was perhaps the turning point. Significantly, social media was full of anti-India rhetoric, with India now becoming the target.

With public perceptions going against Hasina and lakhs of overseas Bangladeshis staging protests, especially in western countries, things added more fuel to the fire. Hasina did try to pacify by making a televised appeal to the people expressing sympathies to those who lost their lives, but that did not seem to help.

Meanwhile, on July 21, the Supreme Court ruled that the veterans' quota be cut to 5 per cent, with 93 per cent of jobs allocated on merit. The remaining 2 per cent will be set aside for members of ethnic minorities, transgenders, and disabled people. This verdict, however, is unlikely to heal the wounds of the youth who are still recovering from the excesses committed by the law enforcement agencies.

As an uneasy calm prevails in Dhaka and other parts of Bangladesh, Prime Minister Hasina and her advisors need to reach out to the aggrieved and sort things out by sitting across the table and engaging them in negotiations. It must also be said that a huge amount of the government’s credibility is lost in handling this movement. A lot more needs to be done to restore confidence and instill a sense of trust.

Hasina also has to rein in her party and the youth wing, the Chhatra League, which is under the lens of society for being glaringly high-handed on their adversaries. This also led to several of them being violently targeted. The Prime Minister may consider revamping her set of advisors and ministerial colleagues. Her team requires a fresh look—partners with new, positive, and progressive ideas. Such a move might help her and the government to come out of a battered image, reducing the trust deficit not only within the country but even outside.

The list of opposition’s accusations against the government is huge: rampant corruption, nepotism, wrong priorities in governance, appeasement, partiality, and several others. It’s an uphill task for Hasina to repair the damage caused by the quota stir. But for political survival and in the larger interest of Bangladesh, that seems a task on priority. A confrontational approach now is the last option, and time is running out.

Prime Minister Hasina has cancelled her upcoming foreign tours, but she needs to convince the Western countries, including the US, UK, and the EU, who have been sceptical about the neutrality of the January ’24 elections. They are also keenly watching the ongoing developments.

Apart from this, the reactions of Pakistan and China merit close watch as the former, taking advantage of the fluid situation, may fish in troubled waters, further vitiating the scene. On the whole, the Bangladesh government will be under close scrutiny of global players, calling for a cautious approach in handling the aftermath of the quota-linked scenario.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal