Retribution without War

Following the Pahalgam terror attack, a narrative is being promoted that India is getting ready to launch a full-scale military attack on Pakistan. However, analysts who are suggesting that PM Modi has given the green light for an attack on Pakistan as a means of inflicting punishment on it seem to have mistaken his intelligence and his mastery over the art of finding cost-effective solutions to the most complex political problems.

No one should forget how Prime Minister Modi had famously advised Russian President Vladimir Putin: "This is not an era of war, but one of dialogue and diplomacy and we all must do what we can to stop the bloodshed and human suffering”. Just as in the case of Russia and Ukraine, PM Modi is fully aware that a solution to the problems between India and Pakistan also cannot be found on the battlefield.

Following the Pahalgam attack, PM Modi had said on April 22 that “Those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice...they will not be spared!”. Two days later on April 24, addressing his first public rally in Madhubani after the deadly Pahalgam attack, PM Modi said “Today, from the soil of Bihar, I say this to the whole world, India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth." These statements are not tantamount to an intent to attack Pakistan and wage war against it. They only spell out the intention to 'punish every terrorist and their backers'. Those who think that waging war is the only way it can be done are mistaken. In fact, such a thesis only supports the narrative of Pakistani politicians who are trying to distract attention from the terror attack in Pahalgam. The fact is that the Shehbaz Sharif government is raising the bogey of an Indian attack in order to cause fear and panic within Pakistan and outside it, thus diverting attention from India's allegations of Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam terror attack. This Pakistani ploy is having its desired effect.

Another important statement by PM Modi is also being misinterpreted in the media. Recently, on April 29, PM Modi affirmed that it is India’s “national resolve to deal a crushing blow to terrorism”. He also said that the Indian armed forces have his full confidence and “complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing” of India’s response in the aftermath of last week’s terror attack at Pahalgam. This has been interpreted as a green light to the armed forces to start a war against Pakistan, but it is not so. Operational freedom generally refers to the ability to act and make decisions without undue constraints or interference. It does not give the armed forces the right to start a war against Pakistan. That would be a major political decision which would go way beyond 'operational freedom'.

The declaration of intent to punish the terrorists is both necessary and reassuring in the context of public anxiety in India. There is a huge deployment of the armed forces, BSF, CRPF and J&K Police all across Jammu and Kashmir. People in India are concerned as to how such a terrorist attack on tourists in Pahalgam could take place despite this heavy deployment. Clearly, there was a security lapse which must be investigated. The Pahalgam attackers who came from across the Line of Control clearly got some logistical and other forms of support from local sleeper cells, for otherwise these terrorists could not have carried out the terrorist attack with such impunity and precision.

PM Modi's statements are a message that he wants to take action on all such issues. Internal security has to be tightened and ISI sleeper cells have to be eradicated in order to prevent such attacks in future. The revamping of the National Security Advisory Board, which took place on May 1, is a step taken by PM Modi to address these challenges.

PM Modi has also stated that he intends to punish the backers of the terrorist attacks against India. Clearly, the Pakistani establishment, especially the army and its intelligence wing ISI are the main backers of all such attacks. They need to be made to pay the price. Some steps have already been announced by the Modi government and many more are under consideration. The decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance is one such step. Downsizing the Pakistan High Commission and declaring the Military, Air and Naval attaches along with their support staff as 'persona non grata' is another step. However, this action may not be enough. It is necessary to shut down the Pakistan High Commission while also withdrawing our diplomats and High Commission staff from Pakistan, thereby breaking off diplomatic ties with that rogue neighbour. Why should we have diplomatic ties with such a neighbour whose avowed intention is to 'bleed India by a thousand cuts'?

Above all, there is an old saying that “my enemy's enemy is my friend”. Our armed forces and intelligence agencies should devise modalities to assist separatist militant outfits in Pakistan, such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Front(BLF). Furthermore, using geopolitical factors to our advantage is the need of the hour. The differences between Kabul and Islamabad are increasing by the day. The current Afghan government, just like the previous ones, do not recognise the Durand Line and have rejected it, viewing it as a colonial imposition. They argue that the line was drawn unfairly and that it cuts through tribal areas and communities, dividing the Pashtun people. The Pakistan Military establishment has been consistent in implementing its avowed policy that it will bleed India by a thousand cuts. Our policy should be to break up Pakistan by a thousand blows! For inflicting these blows, we don't have to attack Pakistan and wage war against it, which could be a costly option. We have to use all our diplomatic skills. If we assist the BLF and the TTP, they will be grateful to us and will also carry out their own objective of striking a thousand blows at the Pakistan army. Breaking up Pakistan by weakening it from within would be the most desirable policy option for us.

In conclusion, all this hype about India's impending attack on Pakistan is misleading. I am confident that PM Modi will fulfil his promise that 'India will identify, trace and punish every terrorist and their backers' while also abiding by his words that 'this is not an era of war'. Let us trust him and not try to drive the narrative ourselves.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed are personal