Patchy progress

China and the United States represent one of the most important but complex bilateral relationships. The economic ties between the two countries are deeply intertwined. In the current geopolitical scenario, both the US and China, and the world at large, cannot afford a miscalculation of each other's intentions and the resultant confrontation. US Secretary of State Henry A Kissinger had remarked that “Peace and progress between China and the US are in the self-interest of each country and of the world.” The recently concluded APEC Summit, along with the 30th APEC Economic Leaders’ Informal Dialogue in San Francisco, held between November 14 to 17, has a key takeaway — the Xi-Biden meeting aimed to pursue cooperation amid extreme geopolitical competition.

Both China and the US stressed that they do not seek decoupling. This was reiterated by the Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, as well as China's lead person for China-US economic and trade affairs.

The American agenda has been to re-establish military-to-military ties with China. For China, the top priority has been to ensure that the intense competition between the world's two biggest economies and their disagreements over a host of issues from trade to Taiwan and the South China Sea does not veer into conflict.

Background

China and the US have experienced periods of tension and cooperation over issues including trade, climate change, and Taiwan since 1949, when the PRC was formally established. The countries established diplomatic ties in 1979, but today, the US-China relations remain in their worst state. Washington is concerned about Beijing’s military activity near Taiwan and its economic practices. At the same time, China has accused the US of trying to contain its growth with export controls and efforts to enhance security alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

China, being an authoritarian nation, has been referred to as the most serious long-term challenge to the world order in the current times. It contrasts with US commitments to advancing democracy and human rights. The Sino-US relations hit the lowest point under the Trump administration. However, with the Biden administration taking reign, there was a possibility of change in the course of US-China relations. The three pillars of the Biden administration’s strategy are investing in domestic industry, technology, and infrastructure, aligning with allies and partners to oppose China’s increasing aggression, and competing with China globally.

Biden and Xi desire to ease bilateral tensions and agree to reopen communication channels. The Americans are ready to compete vigorously but are not looking for conflict. However, the Relations between the two countries grew frosty after Biden ordered the shooting down of a suspected Chinese spy balloon that flew over the United States in February 2023.

Recent developments

Climate has been one of the top agenda for both countries. At the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, China and the US agreed to boost climate cooperation over the next decade. Both sides reaffirmed to their firm commitment to work together to achieve the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature goal set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Xi had earlier announced that China will aim for carbon neutrality by 2060, while the US is aiming for net-zero by 2050.

Recently, China’s veteran climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua, met with US climate envoy John Kerry in California to promote bilateral cooperation on climate change ahead of the COP28. The conclusion of the meetings coincided with the release by the MEE of a Methane Emissions Control Action Plan, a potential move to lay the groundwork for further discussions on methane reduction at COP28.

Nuclear arms talks took place in Washington in November 2023. This was a rare sight. Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance (AVC) Mallory Stewart and Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Director-General of Arms Control Sun Xiaobo met to discuss nuclear arms control and non-proliferation. As per official sources, the two sides exchanged views on a wide range of topics, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, cooperation among the five nuclear-weapon states (the UK, US, Russia, France, and China), non-proliferation, nuclear security, and export control, biological and chemical treaty compliance, conventional arms control and outer space security. It emphasised the importance of increased People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) nuclear transparency and substantive engagement and work on practical measures to manage and reduce strategic risks across multiple domains.

Furthermore, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is leading a delegation of officials and 17 exhibitors to this year’s China International Import Expo (CIIE) as part of the largest-ever delegation of US representatives since the event’s inauguration in 2018.

Statistically, China has been the largest market for US agricultural products, in particular soybeans, corn, cotton, and meat products. In 2022, the US’ agricultural exports to China reached a total of USD 40.9 billion, up 14.5 per cent year-on-year according to the USDA.

China has resumed group tours to the United States as direct flights increased; a special 50th anniversary concert was held in Beijing to celebrate the Philadelphia Orchestra's 1973 visit to China; Chinese artists performed the dance drama "Mulan" at the Kennedy Centre in Washington; and more than 200 US exhibitors in various sectors attended the sixth China International Import Expo, marking the largest US presence in the history of the expo.

China and the US, through multiple platforms of dialogue and deliberations, have agreed to work together to address common challenges, including economic growth, financial stability and regulation, and to cooperate on economic issues related to climate change and the debt problems of low-income and emerging economies. They also agreed to strengthen international financial architecture, promote meaningful quota replenishment of the IMF and make efforts to increase the voice of underrepresented members/regions through the new quota formula, and accelerate the adoption of reforms of the multilateral development banks to make them better, bigger and more effective.

Conclusion

The conclusion of the recent Xi-Biden meeting at the APEC Summit was high on expectations but low on delivery. Beijing knows that the prospects of a truce over security policy are dim, yet it wants to ease broader tensions to boost confidence in its struggling economy. The possible way could be to integrate the competitive and cooperative elements of the relationship while making future attempts to coordinate in a more effective and sustainable way. Both sides need to be pragmatic with lower expectations, in recognition that bilateral relations are at their worst point in nearly half a century. A collaborative effort in future should focus on concrete rather than symbolic actions. Instead of creating linkages of various issues, compartmentalisation can act better in terms of cooperation.

Joint actions should be pursued through multilateral processes wherever possible. Working via such channels will have the strategic benefit of demonstrating to third parties that the United States is not the country seeking all-out confrontation. Prioritising multilateral initiatives would also force China to confront paying diplomatic costs with several countries, not just the United States, if it considers backing out of an agreement. In addition, security initiatives to reduce risk and improve crisis management stand as the major exception to the multilateral preference and can be pursued bilaterally.

The writer is PhD Scholar in Political Science and International Politics. Views expressed are personal