Necessary alignment

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, while speaking at a symposium, stated:

“We hope that the new US administration will make the right choices, meet China halfway, cease all interference, overcome obstacles, strive to enhance Sino-US relations, and achieve stable, healthy, and sustainable development.”

He also highlighted the fact that global instability and uncertainty are likely to rise, but China would play an important role in ensuring peace and preventing geopolitical turmoil.

Wang Yi’s remarks came in response to incoming US President Donald Trump’s statements, where the latter expressed hope that Beijing and Washington could work jointly to resolve global issues. Trump praised Chinese President Xi Jinping and stated that the Washington-Beijing relationship had witnessed a downturn after the COVID-19 pandemic. Ties between the US and China had begun to deteriorate after the imposition of tariffs by Trump. COVID-19 further exacerbated the tensions between Washington and Beijing. It is not just economic ties, but people-to-people linkages have also been impacted due to the downturn in relations.

Joe Biden, who succeeded Trump in 2021, essentially continued Trump’s approach vis-à-vis China. However, despite the strains between both countries, he understood the importance of diplomatic engagement with Beijing. Biden also reiterated that “competition” should not turn into “conflict” and recognised the need for Beijing and Washington to collaborate on global issues—especially in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war.

If one were to examine Trump’s statements during the election campaign and afterward, it seems unlikely that there will be any change in his approach toward China. Trump has said he would impose an additional 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods. His team also consists of China hawks, including incoming US Secretary of State Mike Rubio, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Waltz has referred to China as an “existential threat.”

At the same time, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and co-head of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has a strong stake in stable ties with China. Musk has close ties with senior leaders in the Communist Party, especially Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Earlier this year, Musk visited China, met with Premier Li Qiang, and said:

“We have known each other now for many years, since early Shanghai days.”

The US billionaire has referred to China as “amazing.”

Trump’s pick for US ambassador to China

Trump’s choice for US Ambassador to China, David Perdue, is someone who understands Asia in general and China in particular, though he has also been labelled as a hawk. After nominating him, Donald Trump, in a social media post, said:

“As a Fortune 500 CEO, who had a 40-year international business career, and served in the US Senate, David brings valuable expertise to help build our relationship with China. He has lived in Singapore and Hong Kong, and worked in Asia and China for much of his career.”

After being nominated, Perdue emphasised that he had worked in Asia and would seek to effectively represent US interests. Perdue’s role will, of course, depend greatly on Trump’s approach toward China and how economic and geopolitical developments unfold in the coming months.

Why would other countries in Asia keep a close watch on Trump’s China policy?

ASEAN countries will be closely observing the US-China relationship since they have benefitted from good ties between both countries. In recent years, the downturn in this relationship has negatively impacted them. Several ASEAN countries have expressed their scepticism about the growing tensions between Beijing and Washington, and they have repeatedly stated that they would not like to be forced to choose between the two.

India, too, will be watching the trajectory of US-China ties closely. While New Delhi-Beijing relations took a downward turn in 2020, both countries have been making efforts to put their bilateral relationship back on track. Trump has warned that he would impose 100 per cent tariffs on countries—specifically BRICS nations—that pursue de-dollarisation. This includes both China and India. In response to Trump’s statement, India has categorically stated that it has not advocated de-dollarisation. While, in the aftermath of sanctions on Russia, India has been promoting trade in local currencies, it remains sceptical about the idea of a BRICS currency. Senior Indian officials have reiterated that while India seeks to reduce its dependency on the US dollar, it does not aim to de-dollarize.

Conclusion

In conclusion, there are some fundamental divergences between China and the US, but both countries must maintain a working relationship to ensure a modicum of global stability. They will need to collaborate to find solutions to the Russia-Ukraine crisis as well as conflicts in the Middle East. Ultimately, much will depend on Trump’s China policy and the evolving global geopolitical landscape. While statements from Trump and the Chinese Foreign Minister offer insights, the US-China relationship during a potential Trump 2.0 presidency will be dictated by numerous factors and complexities. With Trump at the helm, one thing that cannot be ruled out is ‘unpredictability’.

The writer is a New Delhi-based analyst associated with the OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Views expressed are personal