Left in limbo

The much-awaited first Union Budget after the 2024 General Elections has again disappointed those keenly interested in governance and public policy. The lack of adequate allocation for the population census, which should have been completed by 2020-2021 but was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, raises serious concerns. The PM Narendra Modi-led NDA government, often criticised by opposition parties as a ‘No-Data-Available’ administration, has shown little interest in conducting the mandated exercise, even though life has returned to pre-COVID conditions.

The population enumeration exercise was introduced by the British in India in 1881 to understand the vast, diverse society by counting people, caste, linguistic groups, professions, etc. The census provided comprehensive basic statistics on the state of human resources, demography, culture, and economic structure and also contained sensitive numbers of caste and linguistic groups among people. With such a detailed report, the British were able to rule the region for nearly two centuries. The report was instrumental in British national, military, and economic policy framing and decisions.

Post-Independence, the Government of India decided to avoid counting caste details but continued to enumerate SC/ST populations to allocate their representation in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies, a practice later extended to Panchayati Raj seats. Since then, the Government of India and various state governments have relied on the population census for major decisions regarding reservations, linguistic matters, the upliftment of tribes and vulnerable groups, and economic planning. In 2011, the UPA government conducted a detailed Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC), which counted each caste and their socio-economic status, but the data was not released due to reported methodological errors. To date, the Union and various state governments largely depend on the 2011 census for policy decisions and welfare schemes.

The INDIA alliance has pledged to conduct a caste-based population census to ensure equality and fair representation for all groups within inclusive governance. Even key NDA alliance parties have made similar demands. A caste-based census is crucial for fulfilling social justice, especially for OBC communities, whose reservation and internal reservation claims are often struck down by the Supreme Court and high courts due to the lack of credible data on their population and economic status.

Beyond addressing OBC concerns, the census is also pivotal for implementing the historic women's reservation bill. This bill necessitates the latest population census-based delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies, followed by allocating 33 per cent of seats to women. Conducting a census is vital for making our higher legislative bodies more gender-neutral and ensuring fair representation for all.

The census also plays a crucial role in determining beneficiaries of welfare schemes such as the Food Security Act, which provides subsidies or free food grains to the poorer sections of society. The Act still relies on data from the decade-old 2011 census. To effectively incorporate the needy under the social security umbrella and eliminate those no longer eligible, the population enumeration exercise must take place. Accurate census data is essential for addressing the daily hunger needs of millions and enabling governments to provide direct assistance.

Furthermore, the census will reveal growing population trends among different groups and linguistic communities, enabling the government to implement targeted intervention schemes to address emerging challenges. Both the Finance Commission and Delimitation Commission depend on the latest census data to determine fiscal allocations and proportional seat distribution in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies.

Beyond reservations and welfare activities, the census generates actionable data on the Indian landscape. This data provides a clear view for government policy framers and industries to analyse and design strategies for their potential workforce, market needs, and target consumers. As the Budget aims to create 78.5 lakh jobs per year and elevate India to the world's third-largest economy, the census forms a foundation for policymakers to enhance both commercial and social justice domains.

In April 2023, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs reported that India had surpassed China to become the most populous country, with a population of 1.42 billion. This demographic shift presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it provides India with the world's largest workforce, driving economic growth. On the other hand, it poses significant challenges in accommodating the entire population and planning for an ageing demographic. For effective long-term policy planning, India desperately needs current, reliable, and accurate population data, which only a comprehensive census can provide.

India recently set a record by conducting the world's largest election, with 640 million voters casting their ballots. Additionally, almost every state has elected a new government since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, further delaying the census will have large-scale adverse consequences, affecting everything from resource allocation to social welfare programmes and economic planning. Accurate census data is crucial for addressing the immediate and future needs of the population, ensuring that policies are grounded in reality and that every citizen's needs are met.

The delay in conducting the census is not just a bureaucratic lapse but a significant policy failure with far-reaching consequences. The absence of up-to-date data hampers the ability to address current challenges effectively and plan for future needs. The government's reluctance to prioritise the census, despite the recovery from the pandemic, suggests a lack of commitment to evidence-based policymaking. The repercussions of this delay are profound, affecting the most vulnerable sections of society and undermining efforts towards equitable development.

The census, as a systematic data collection tool, is essential for informed and rational policymaking. In the context of social justice theories, the delay in conducting the census undermines efforts towards achieving equality and fairness. The absence of up-to-date data leads to inefficient allocation of resources and ineffective targeting of beneficiaries. For instance, the Food Security Act relies on accurate population data to determine the number of beneficiaries and ensure that food grains reach the most vulnerable sections of society. Without updated data, the Act's implementation is hampered, leading to food insecurity among the poorest sections of the population.

The delay in conducting the census also has significant political implications. Accurate population data is required for the delimitation of parliamentary and assembly constituencies, ensuring fair representation in the legislative bodies. The delay in the census affects the process of delimitation, leading to discrepancies in representation and undermining the democratic process.

In conclusion, the government must recognise the urgency of this issue and take immediate steps to conduct the census. This will ensure that policies and programmes are grounded in reality, addressing the true needs of the people and paving the way for a more inclusive and prosperous future. The delay in conducting the census is a significant policy failure with far-reaching consequences. The government must prioritise the census to ensure effective governance, social justice, and economic development. Accurate and current population data is essential for informed policymaking and achieving the goal of inclusive and sustainable development in India. The urgency of conducting the census cannot be overstated, as it forms the foundation for addressing the nation's diverse and evolving needs, ensuring a more equitable and prosperous future for all its citizens.

Amal Chandra is an author, political analyst, and columnist; Thirunavukarasu is a Doctoral Researcher at the University of Madras, who worked as a journalist and consultant for the Indian Political Action Committee. Views expressed are personal