India’s South Asia Test

South Asia, home to over a quarter of the world’s population, boasts a rich political landscape marked by cultural and religious pluralism, diverse political systems, and a shared colonial past. The region’s nation-building process was initiated under courageous leadership. However, each country faces unique challenges. Pakistan’s internal divisions among provinces and between modernist and militant Islamist forces have led to perpetual political instability, terrorism, and Islamic nationalism. Bangladesh’s recent political developments have posed new challenges to democracy and nation-building. Nepal’s political landscape has been torn between pro-democracy and pro-monarchy movements. In contrast, Bhutan has maintained stability through the monarch’s wise decision to share power with the people.

In the early 21st century, South Asia witnessed anti-state rebellions, including the Pakistani Taliban’s challenge to Pakistan’s security establishment, Maoist movements in Nepal, the Tamil Tigers’ de facto state in northern Sri Lanka, and rising Islamic extremism in Bangladesh. However, by 2020, state ascendancy became visible as these rebellions were largely crushed through a combination of bargaining and political accommodation. Today, all the South Asian nations face complex realities where democratic institutions are under strain. Sectarian and divisive forces seek to legitimise their authority by exploiting religion, regional identity, and cultural superiority. Political instability and democratic distortions contribute to the crisis of good governance in some nations. The emerging political scenario of the region is characterised by rising authoritarianism, nationalism, erosion of civil liberties, and a decline of democratic institutions and practices.

India’s Role in South Asia: Hegemony or Dominance?

India, the world’s largest democracy, holds a significant position in South Asia, sharing land or maritime borders with all countries in the region. Traditionally, India has viewed South Asia, excluding arch-rival Pakistan, as its natural sphere of influence due to its size and development level. India has pursued this influence through various means, including political engagement, defense cooperation, economic and trade ties, and cultural linkages. India’s relationship with Southeast Asia is centuries-old, dating back to ancient times when Indian traders and scholars established cultural, religious, and commercial ties with the region. This historical connection has laid the foundation for India’s engagement with Southeast Asia.

China’s Growing Influence

In recent years, China has emerged as the world’s second-largest economy, enhancing its political and economic engagement with smaller South Asian nations. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has funded and implemented numerous infrastructure projects in the region, complemented by financial incentives and defence agreements. China’s access to key ports in the Indian Ocean, such as Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, and Chittagong in Bangladesh, has raised concerns in India about China’s “String of Pearls” strategy, perceived as an attempt to encircle India.

Historically, China has had complex economic and political interactions with Southeast Asia, with significant Chinese migration to the region over the centuries. China’s increasing engagement in South Asia must be viewed through the lens of the strategic competition between China and the US for global dominance. China’s growing presence in South Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for the region, potentially turning it into an arena for geopolitical competition that could impact domestic and international policies of various states. Policymakers in the region must navigate these dynamics carefully to ensure stability and development. India, in particular, needs to weigh the pros and cons of its decisions and engage in serious diplomatic efforts to maintain its dominance in the region. South Asia’s strategic importance stems from its geographic location, large population, and risks associated with nuclear weaponry and terrorism. The region is crucial for the US’s goal of fostering an open Indo-Pacific and China’s aspiration to become the leading Asian power. China’s stance on India-Pakistan disputes favours Pakistan, which benefits from China’s backing and development financing. The US, however, is playing a cautious role, avoiding clear opposition.

India’s Emerging Role: Challenges and Opportunities

A researcher has applied the Greek concepts of hegemonia and arche to explain India’s role in South Asia. Hegemonia refers to legitimate authority associated with honour and office, conferred by others in recognition of benefits provided to the community. In contrast, arche is based on material capabilities, sustained through displays of power, and characterised by a hierarchical structure. India aspires to hold the position of hegemony in the region, while its neighbours perceive it as an arch-rival or an asserted headship.

India’s response to the Sri Lankan crisis in the late 1980s has led to a cautious approach toward the island nation’s problems. The Indian government has refused to supply arms, allowing Sri Lanka to procure them from Pakistan and China instead. This raises questions about India’s leadership potential in the region.

India’s regional policies have been criticised for lacking a positive approach to addressing labour migration from Nepal and Bangladesh. The construction of barbed-wire fences to deter migration raises concerns about India’s leadership role. India’s policies often prioritise short-term interests over long-term goals, and its preference for a restrained leadership role has contributed to negative perceptions.

Building Hegemony through Consent and Cooperation

To establish itself as a hegemonic power, India needs to adopt a more proactive leadership role, providing useful political advice and meaningful economic guidance to its neighbours. India’s approach should incorporate Antonio Gramsci’s definition of hegemony, where consent dominates coercion. By doing so, India can prove that its size and influence can be beneficial for the region.

The assessment by Bhavani Sen Gupta remains relevant: “The Indian elephant cannot transform itself into a mouse. If South Asia is to get itself out of the crippling binds of conflicts and cleavages, the six will have to accept the bigness of the seventh. And the seventh, that is India, will have to prove to the six that big can indeed be beautiful.”

Fr. John Felix Raj is the Vice Chancellor and Prabhat Kumar Datta is an Adjunct Professor, both at St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata. Views expressed are personal