Heading nowhere?

In 1999, Thomas Friedman, the renowned columnist and author wrote that the world had gone from a system built around walls to a system increasingly built around networks. This has been the rationale behind the emergence of numerous regional groupings such as the European Economic Community, ASEAN, the African Union, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Union of South American Nations, Mercosur and a host of other regional organisations.

The need for regional cooperation was felt in South Asia too, and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or SAARC was established in December 1985 with the objective of working together to promote the welfare of the people of South Asia. However, SAARC failed to promote regional cooperation.

Against this background, India looked for another regional organisation to act as the vehicle for regional cooperation. The Bangladesh-India-Sri Lanka-Thailand Economic Cooperation (BISTEC) was established in June 1997 with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration. The organisation is now known as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and comprises seven Member States with the admission of Myanmar in December 1997, and Bhutan and Nepal in February 2004. BIMSTEC enjoys the unique potential of connecting South and South-East Asia.

For India, BIMSTEC represents the intersection of its ‘Neighbourhood First’ outlook, the ‘Act East Policy’ and the ‘SAGAR’ vision. Each of these endeavours has a specific focus on the Bay of Bengal, where collaborative potential has long remained underrealized.

India has repeatedly emphasised that it remains committed to further building the momentum of regional cooperation under the framework of BIMSTEC and making it a stronger, vibrant and result-oriented grouping.

There are several factors which impart BIMSTEC a great deal of significance for India. Firstly, it is a forum for India to meaningfully engage with its South Asian neighbours, especially as SAARC has become practically non-functional. Secondly, it facilitates two important objectives of our foreign policy: Neighborhood First and Act East. Thirdly, BIMSTEC can help in the economic development of India’s North Eastern states by linking them to the Bay of Bengal region via Bangladesh and Myanmar. Fourthly, India hopes that it could help in countering China’s increasing influence through its Belt and Road Initiative in countries around the Bay of Bengal.

However, a moot point is whether BIMSTEC is heading anywhere, or is it belying the hopes and expectations we have from it?

No doubt, progress has been made in certain areas. Robust connectivity is an essential prerequisite for economic integration of the region with smooth cross-border movement of people and goods. BIMSTEC members has been working on the Master Plan for Transport Connectivity for improving the sub region’s transport linkages covering roads and road transport, railways and rail transport, ports and maritime transport, inland water transport, civil aviation and airports, multimodal and intermodal transport, trade facilitation, and human resource development in the Connectivity sector. The BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity was formally adopted at the Fifth BIMSTEC Summit held in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on March 30, 2022.

Another priority area for BIMSTEC is counter-terrorism & trans-national crimes. Cooperation in the security sector has a special significance. The National Security Advisors of BIMSTEC member states have met thrice since 2017. They have been working closely and have moved forward in several aspects of security cooperation including counter-terrorism, intelligence sharing, coastal security, cybersecurity, etc in a tangible manner.

However, one cannot overlook the shortcomings of this regional organisation. Although more than 27 years have elapsed since BIMSTEC was set up, its member countries have not been able to set up a Free Trade Area. Moreover, BIMSTEC as an organisation has not picked up the desired momentum. Its Summits are supposed to be held every two years and ministerial meetings every year, but only five summits have taken place until now. These were the Summits on July 31, 2004 in Bangkok, Thailand; November 13, 2008 in New Delhi, India; March 4, 2014 at Naypyidaw, Myanmar; August 30–31, 2018 at Kathmandu, Nepal: and March 30, 2022 in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The low frequency of the summits is itself a pointer to the inadequate attention being given to this organisation by the member states.

Another drawback is that the range of issues taken up by BIMSTEC is perhaps too wide. It covers 14 areas of cooperation: Trade and Investment, Technology, Energy, Transportation and Communication, Tourism, Fisheries, Agriculture, Cultural Cooperation, Environment and Disaster Management, Public Health, People-to-People Contacts, Poverty Alleviation, Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crimes, and Climate Change. At this stage, BIMSTEC should focus on only some areas; it should develop regional cooperation in those select areas before embarking on others.

There are some political problems also which are bedevilling BIMSTEC. Foremost among these is the situation in Myanmar. In early February 2021, Myanmar’s military staged a coup and seized power after complaining of fraud in the November 2020 general election won overwhelmingly by Aung San Suu Kyi's party, though election monitoring groups found no evidence of mass fraud. The military junta detained Aung San Suu Kyi and many other senior leaders of the democratically-elected government while some others went into hiding. The junta instituted a year-long state of emergency and has since extended it every six months while the protest movement has transformed into an armed rebellion that has widened and is now posing an existential threat to the generals.

The internal situation in Myanmar has also adversely impacted its relations with some of the BIMSTEC countries. The issue of over a million Muslim Rohingya refugees from Myanmar living in camps in Bangladesh is a constant irritant in the relations between these two countries. As Myanmar’s military continued its crackdown on civilians protesting against the coup, India condemned any use of violence and said that it stood for the restoration of democracy in the country. Thailand also said it was “gravely concerned” about escalating bloodshed since the coup' but it did not go much further as Thailand's military has close ties with the junta in Myanmar. In any case, the situation pertaining to Myanmar is not at all conducive for the promotion of BIMSTEC's agenda of regional cooperation.

Another development which may come in the way of BIMSTEC is the souring of India-Bangladesh relations following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina as Prime Minister of Bangladesh. The unfolding scenario is not boding well for India-Bangladesh ties. India is waiting and watching the developments in Bangladesh, taking note of statements emanating from Dhaka. Bangladesh, which is currently being led by an interim government under Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus, is demanding that Sheikh Hasina be extradited from India. On October 17, Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal issued an arrest warrant against Sheikh Hasina for her alleged involvement in “crimes against humanity” that took place during the protests which led to her ouster. India responded to the development by stating that Hasina came to India for safety reasons and has remained there. India has the option to refuse the extradition request, especially if there are credible concerns about charges being politically motivated and potential judicial proceedings in Bangladesh being unfair. As things appear at the moment, it does not seem likely that Hasina will be extradited by India though this will continue to be an irritant in bilateral relations.

The highly proactive role being played by China in most BIMSTEC countries is also impeding the growth of this regional organisation. China wants that connectivity should be based on its Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) and has been constantly trying to wean away the countries that draw closer to India, which is not a part of BRI. China has financed infrastructure projects in the region with loans and credits which come at a price.

China is known to be the most influential foreign actor in Myanmar, and the new government in Bangladesh is also being seen as pro-China. On July 15, KP Sharma Oli was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of Nepal, marking his fourth term in office. Throughout his past three terms, Oli has consistently advocated for deeper ties with China. Any further consolidation of Chinese influence in Nepal could also have far-reaching implications for the BIMSTEC agenda .

Thailand was to host the Sixth BIMSTEC Summit on September 3-4 but it was postponed owing to the political upheaval there. It may be recalled that on August 14, 2024, the Constitutional Court in Thailand dismissed Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin for ethical violations related to a ministerial appointment, after which Paetongtarn Shinawatra was elected as the new prime minister. Consequently, Thailand postponed the BIMSTEC Summit citing a lack of readiness due to the new government formation. There is no indication when the next BIMSTEC Summit will be held, and consequently, the inertia in BIMSTEC may continue to linger.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York. Views expressed are personal