Futile attempts
Pakistan’s efforts to dismantle emerging Indo-Taliban ties are short-lived
Pakistan is seen to be deriving immense pleasure and joy on the rout of the Afghan government led by President Ashraf Ghani, who eventually fled the country, seeking refuge elsewhere. Pakistan seems to be particularly happy as Ashraf Ghani was seen as India's friend and not particularly favourably disposed towards Pakistan. His exit has called for a celebration in Pakistani political circles under Prime Minister Imran Khan who, on more than one occasion, incurred the wrath of Ghani, who didn't spare Imran Khan, taking a principled stand that the latter had collaborated with the Taliban, militarily and clandestinely, to trounce the legitimate Afghan government. Imran Khan, therefore, has reasons to rejoice seeing the Taliban at the helm. Many say that such a feeling of rejoice and cheer is perverse and perhaps sadistic. Little do they forget that India and Afghanistan have been friends since time immemorial and India has always stood by Afghanistan in times of crisis with economic packages, help in infrastructure projects, hospitals, scholarships etc. In reality, there is plenty of goodwill around Indians among friendly Afghans. Sustained attempts by Pakistan to fracture this relationship during the Taliban's second innings, may succeed for a brief time but it's unlikely to last for long, and that's for sure.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's federal cabinet met on August 31 in Islamabad and chiefly discussed the situation arising in the aftermath of the Taliban's capture of Kabul and the US pull-out of its forces along with NATO and other allies. In a bizarre statement, the Pakistani Information Minister, Fawad Chaudhry, while speaking to the press after the cabinet meeting, said that there will be a reduction in Indian 'mischief' and 'funding' to use Afghan soil against Pakistan. It certainly doesn't suit a cabinet minister to make such sweeping and baseless allegations against a sovereign country. No doubt, Pakistan treats its eastern neighbour as a military adversary but using charges like funding and mischief is not acceptable by any stretch of imagination. Surprisingly, Prime Minister Imran Khan (PMIK) also endorsed such unparliamentary language averred by his cabinet colleague against India.
In sum, the Pakistan establishment is euphoric over the Taliban victory, principally with wishful thinking that India has lost out to its geostrategic and economic interests in Afghanistan. What Pakistan is perhaps not realising, out of its prevailing gung-ho, is that the religious extremists in Pakistan, and well over two million Pashtuns living in the country (Pakistan), are much emboldened with the Taliban ascendancy. The Taliban has already announced the implementation of Sharia law in Afghanistan under their governance. In light of this, the bigots of Pakistan are expected to, in due course, demand stringent religious laws to be enforced in Pakistan. What will PMIK and his cohorts then do to deal with this challenge?
Pakistan has already chosen a path of religious regression in nearly the last 75 years of its existence. Blasphemy laws are deadly and religious intolerance is extreme. It had seen several coups and counter-coups and even dismemberment of its eastern arm, which is now Bangladesh. The dream of a Naya Pakistan or a progressive state already looks distant. Taliban's spillover influence will have no difficulty in transcending Pakistan borders and fuelling the extreme fundamentalists, pushing the country into further medievalism and possibly violence. With signs of ISIS(K) Khorasan raising its monstrous head with wanton killings, peace could be a threat and the menace does not look too far. Perhaps the Deep State and the Pakistani security establishment have not factored this into account and even if they have, they seem unwilling to acknowledge the hard reality due to the pressure of the zealots who are desperately waiting to hurt the democratic form of governance in Pakistan.
Under the prevailing circumstances, it could therefore be prudent for Pakistan to join hands with progressive and liberal forces to try and contain the rise of extreme religious fervour. If this trend goes unchecked, it would be detrimental to millions of youths in the region who must be aspiring to be symbolic of a new face of Pakistan, bereft of any religious parochialism. Their hopes will be belied if Pakistan continues to nurture the Taliban scheme of things just to settle scores with India. Such a short-sighted mindset may be brief but, in the long run, it's Pakistan that will be doomed to suffer.
Meanwhile, in a major and significant move, the Indian Ambassador to Qatar met the chief of the Taliban's political office, Sher Muhammad Abbas Stanikzai, on August 31. India has been heard for trying to be in touch with the Taliban much before it assumed power but this meeting has been made public by the Indian foreign ministry, meaning that India has openly established a channel with a senior functionary of the Taliban leadership. Stanikzai is an alumnus of the Indian Military Academy (IMA) Dehradun and has recently called upon India to open its diplomatic mission in Kabul and resume trade, political and cultural ties with Afghanistan under the Taliban. Going by this development, India is seen to be softening towards Afghanistan and similarly, the Taliban too is weighing its options carefully as it needs recognition and most crucially, help from India for rebuilding its battered economy and aid for infrastructural developments. India is familiar with Afghanistan's requirements. So, picking up the thread where it is left will be easy. Pakistan, of course, will be wily in watching Indo-Taliban ties with abundant caution and may even try to throw a spanner to puncture the baby steps. On its part, the Taliban in its second innings should try not to alienate the global fraternity and first gain recognition and legitimacy to govern. India is in a better position than Pakistan to help the Taliban dispensation for its acceptance. Its diplomatic clout and credibility is much wider than Pakistan. World, in the meantime, is watching with interest about the formation of the government in Kabul and it's equally watchful of Pakistan's role in shaping a government taking off in Afghanistan. Fingers crossed!
The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal