Fractured Frontiers

Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated following a major military escalation involving cross-border airstrikes and heavy clashes, leading to casualties on both sides and the closure of key border crossings.

On October 9, 2025, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Kabul targeting Noor Wali Mehsud, who is the current Emir, or chief, of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In response, the Afghan Taliban launched retaliatory attacks, leading to fierce clashes along the shared border on October 11–12, 2025. Both sides claimed to have captured border posts and inflicted casualties. Afghan officials claim their forces killed 58 Pakistani soldiers in the border clashes. Pakistan says its security forces captured 19 Afghan border posts, claiming that more than 200 Taliban and affiliated fighters were killed. Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, who was on a visit to India, said that Afghanistan had achieved its military objectives and that its military had paused the fighting for the time being.

Pakistan has accused the Taliban government of sheltering anti-Pakistan militants from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP — a claim the Taliban has denied. Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have escalated following the major military escalation involving cross-border airstrikes and heavy clashes, leading to casualties on both sides.

The fighting prompted Pakistan to close key border crossings, including Torkham and Chaman. The closures halted all trade and travel through the main border crossings, stranding hundreds of trucks carrying goods, which heavily disrupted the economy of landlocked Afghanistan. The cutoff of movement affected local communities that depend on the crossings for their livelihoods and humanitarian aid. Afghan refugees attempting to return home were also left stranded in harsh conditions, with limited access to food and water.

It may be recalled that decades of direct and covert support from Pakistan helped the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan’s military and its intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), provided the Taliban with crucial sanctuary, training, funding, and diplomatic backing throughout their insurgency against US-led forces. For nearly two decades, Taliban leaders and fighters found shelter inside Pakistan’s border regions and in major cities like Quetta, Peshawar, and Karachi.

Therefore, Pakistan had thought that the Taliban would be a manageable proxy, but its perception turned out to be totally wrong. The new Taliban government has proven to be an uncooperative and independent actor, not Pakistan’s proxy. In fact, Pak-Afghan relations have deteriorated significantly since the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in August 2021 and are at a very low point.

Despite years of close ties, Pakistan has not officially recognised the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate authority. The deteriorating security situation and diplomatic tensions show that the historically close relationship has changed dramatically since the Taliban’s return to power. Fundamental issues of mistrust and conflicting interests continue to strain relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, frequently igniting cross-border violence and hindering cooperation. Despite sharing deep cultural and trade ties, unresolved geopolitical disagreements have created a deep-seated trust deficit that complicates their interactions, even after the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul.

Historical and political tensions have also contributed to the conflict. The main historical dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan is the Durand Line, which Afghanistan has never officially recognised. Afghanistan rejects the Durand Line because it was created under duress, it splits the Pashtun ethnic group, and it was a colonial agreement that Afghanistan argues is invalid after the British Raj ended. The line is seen as an arbitrary border that ignores the cultural and ethnic unity of the Pashtun people, with many of their villages and farmlands divided by the boundary. Additionally, Afghanistan contends that it was not a party to the agreement that created modern Pakistan and, therefore, any agreements made with the British government of India are not binding on the new state.

This disagreement is linked to the “Pashtunistan” issue. Pashtunistan is the concept of a homeland for the Pashtun people, encompassing Pashtun areas of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is a nationalist idea that advocates for a unified or autonomous state for Pashtuns, though the exact boundaries and goals have varied over time. Historically, this concept was championed by movements like the non-violent Khudai Khidmatgar movement. However, despite its long history, a unified state of Pashtunistan has not been established. The idea remains a point of political and social discussion, as some Pashtuns continue to advocate for greater autonomy, and the historical idea is used by Pashtun nationalists as a point of leverage in political rhetoric.

Thus, the two nations have a long history of strained relations and conflicting views over the Durand Line — the border established during the colonial era. Afghanistan has never recognised the border, adding another layer of animosity. Pakistan’s mass deportation of Afghan nationals, including those with legal refugee status, has exacerbated tensions and further strained relations.

Given the recent deadly military clashes and ongoing disputes, it is unlikely that tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan will ease in the near future. While diplomatic efforts continue, they have not resolved the fundamental issues driving the conflict, which include cross-border terrorism, the Durand Line border dispute, and the Afghan refugee crisis. Mediators like Qatar and Saudi Arabia have appealed for de-escalation, but long-term improvement appears unlikely due to the deep-seated nature of the conflict drivers. There is little indication that either side will make the necessary concessions in the near term to stop the cycle of violence.

Afghan Foreign Minister Muttaqi’s visit to India, occurring amid severely strained ties between the Taliban and Pakistan, offers India a strategic opportunity. New Delhi’s engagement is a timely response to the deteriorating Pakistan-Taliban relationship. While Afghanistan’s relations with Pakistan are deteriorating, India is strategically strengthening its ties with the Taliban. During Muttaqi’s visit, India announced that it would upgrade its technical mission in Kabul to a full embassy, effectively elevating diplomatic relations with the Taliban administration. This elevates diplomatic engagement to its highest level since the Taliban’s takeover. India’s deepening of ties with the Taliban is seen as a strategic move to counter Pakistan, which earlier had close links to the Taliban.

India’s engagement with Afghanistan has a significant humanitarian dimension because of a severe and ongoing crisis within Afghanistan. India’s approach involves providing aid to address the Afghan people’s urgent needs, maintaining long-standing cultural and historical ties, and acting as a responsible regional stakeholder. This policy has continued even after the Taliban returned to power, despite differences with the regime.

Since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, Afghanistan has faced overlapping crises that severely impact its population. Over 90% of the population lives in poverty, with 98% lacking sufficient food. After the Taliban takeover in Kabul, Western aid was cut off and foreign assets were frozen, causing the economy to shrink significantly. The country’s infrastructure has been ravaged by decades of conflict, leaving the population vulnerable to disease, natural disasters, and ongoing violence.

India has consistently provided aid through multiple channels and initiatives to help the Afghan people. India has supplied vast amounts of food aid, often distributed through the UN World Food Programme, to ensure that it reaches those most in need. India has delivered critical medical supplies, including millions of doses of COVID-19 and polio vaccines, anti-tuberculosis medicines, and other essential supplies.

India has also historically engaged in numerous development projects, including building hospitals and the Salma Dam. In 2025, India announced new development projects, including a 30-bed hospital and several health clinics. Following natural disasters, India has provided emergency relief materials to help affected communities. India continues to offer scholarships for Afghan students and has funded educational projects, despite widespread visa revocations following the Taliban takeover. Following Pakistan’s forceful deportation of Afghan refugees in 2024, India offered additional humanitarian aid to assist with the unfolding crisis.

India’s policy prioritises a “people-first” approach, distinguishing its aid efforts from political recognition of the Taliban regime. It established a technical mission in Kabul in 2022 to coordinate aid delivery, upgrading it to a full embassy in October 2025.

A humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan could have a destabilising “spillover effect” on the entire region. By providing aid, India seeks to mitigate this instability and prevent the country from becoming a haven for terrorism — a concern India regularly raises at the United Nations. Engaging with the Taliban through humanitarian channels allows India to maintain a foothold in Afghanistan and counter the influence of regional rivals like Pakistan and China. Deteriorating relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have created a diplomatic opening for India to increase its own engagement.

Summing up, the violent clashes are the latest chapter in the deteriorating relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Given the surge in deadly border clashes in October 2025, the ongoing dispute over the Durand Line, and the breakdown of counter-terrorism cooperation, tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan are highly unlikely to ease in the near future. Thus, the future of Pak-Afghan relations appears highly volatile, characterised by sustained tensions and the risk of further armed conflict. While Pakistan possesses superior conventional military power, the Taliban has proven effective at cross-border skirmishes and guerrilla tactics. A full-scale war is unlikely, but a prolonged period of instability and border clashes is very probable.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in New York