Faith, Fear, Future

Bangladesh is gearing up for the February 2026 elections, and the campaigning is now at a feverish pitch. Things are also heating up because of Jamaat’s heightened confidence and steady increase of grassroots support for a much better performance in the forthcoming elections. The party is buoyant in the aftermath of the striking victory of its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir (ICS), in the recently held student elections in the universities of Dhaka, Rajshahi, Chittagong, and Jahangirnagar. Jamaat is also upbeat following its decision to contest at least 298 seats in the polls. Although it has never categorically stated that it would like to contest to assume power, it most certainly looks to be trying its best to test the waters and would be happy to sit in the opposition in case it loses out to its principal adversary and contender, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).

Either way, Jamaat is likely to occupy more political space than before in the foreseeable future, as it is making up for its long political hibernation and is also expected to assert more pre- and post-elections. With a strong cadre-based rank and file, external monetary support, and internal endorsement, it will, in all probability, try to prove that it is more than alive and kicking.

While assessing Jamaat’s electoral prospects, it would also appear that it will not hesitate in taking on the BNP and other invisible or apparent political rivals head-on, raising the chances of direct confrontations that could also assume violent proportions. Hence, law and order agencies need to be cautious to face a Jamaat or Shibir onslaught in the not-so-distant future. In the same vein, it would be interesting to see if there is an indication of the inflow of Jamaat-inclined elements into the intelligence, counter-terror, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), police, and other paramilitary units, which will not only strengthen Jamaat’s ideology and muscle power but will further indoctrinate the country in a larger context towards religious fundamentalism. This is not only for academic study but merits serious note on the part of political analysts and Jamaat watchers.

BNP, on the other hand, doesn’t look as sure-footed as it was before the students’ elections. Tarique Rahman is believed to be worried about the resurgence of Jamaat-centric forces. Possibly in light of this development, he has disclosed in a recent BBC interview that he would be coming back to Bangladesh ahead of the elections, obviously for campaigning. He reckons his return would rejuvenate the party, which has not tasted power for years. Tarique may not necessarily prove to be a popular leader, but one fact that cannot be ignored is that he is the son of ex-President Ziaur Rahman, who was charismatic with considerable following in the army, and his widow and Tarique’s mother, Khaleda Zia, ruled the country for two spells and carries considerable political appeal.

Tarique’s purpose in giving the BBC interview, and a detailed one at that, indicates that as the election dates come closer, he would like to give vent to his political plans through media houses for wider outreach — perhaps as part of his political strategy to make sure all loose ends are tied up, especially to deal with the poll strategy. As it is, Jamaat and its affiliates have started giving enough political headaches to him and the BNP. In sum, Tarique is leaving no stone unturned to try and wrest the elections. The fight, therefore, should be interesting.

Under the prevailing political circumstances, amid uncertainty looming large, other religious extremist parties have also started asserting their political existence to make their presence felt. They too are emboldened by Jamaat’s perceived rise to political ascendancy. A recent development has further buttressed this argument. Hefazat-e-Islam, a 15-year-old Islamic fundamentalist party that has registered phenomenal growth in the last decade, has entered into direct confrontation with the most-read English daily, The Daily Star. Maulana Azizul Haque Islamabadi, Joint Secretary General of the party, has made serious accusations against this newspaper for alleged anti-Islamic framing in the name of journalism. Such blatant acts seem to manifest from their “strength,” as in their estimation, they feel “free press” is an obstacle to the proliferation of Islamic fundamentalism. Hefazat has openly challenged the paper for its “misreporting” on counter-terrorism campaigns by the law and order agencies during the previous regime. It has also levelled allegations against The Daily Star for biased reporting on the Gaza genocide and atrocities against the Palestinians.

Though the paper, in an editorial, has defended its balanced and unbiased reporting, Hefazat has unleashed a kind of attrition with the newspaper to exert pressure, apparently to dampen the spirit of press freedom. In other words, we can see the ultra-religious forces constantly trying to occupy political space, targeting media to keep liberals and secular forces from coming close to power. This pattern may gain momentum in due course, and with election fever gripping the country from early next year, canvassing on the horizon may see fundamentalism and religious orthodoxy raising their ugly heads, posing more challenges to the BNP and the liberals. The government, for some reason, seems muted on this aspect, allowing things to drift as the country appears polarized between religion-linked parties and the rest. Some allege that this is by design. Pursuing these developments in that context would be quite engaging.

Meanwhile, according to The New York Times, Bangladesh’s army recently took into custody more than a dozen of its officers accused of serious crimes allegedly committed under Sheikh Hasina, whose 15-year rule ended last year amid widespread protests. The move, announced by the military on October 11, is a rare instance of large-scale detentions of military officers since Hasina’s ouster. The detentions came days after the country’s International Crimes Tribunal — an expedited civilian court set up to prosecute major crimes — issued arrest warrants for 32 people, including Hasina; her military secretary, Major General Kabir Ahmed; and current and former security officers. The charges against them include abduction, torture, and enforced disappearances, as well as unleashing brutal force against protesters that allegedly left more than 1,400 dead. According to Bangladesh Military spokesperson General Hakimuzzaman, the officers with arrest warrants were not on army duty at the time of the crimes they were charged with but had been dispatched to other forces, including the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), which served more directly under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

In another army-related development, Bangladesh Army Chief Waker-Uz-Zaman has cancelled his four-day Saudi Arabia visit in view of the detention of the 14 serving officers. General Zaman had earlier postponed a planned trip to New Delhi, initially set between October 12 and 14. His Saudi visit was to focus on discussions over a potential peacekeeping deployment in a region currently hosting around 7,000 U.S. troops who are expected to withdraw in the coming months.

These military-linked developments are very likely to impact the upcoming elections and may possibly change the political course, as, judging by history, the Bangladesh military has often played a critical role in power politics, leading to the rise of General Ziaur Rahman and General Ershad, as well as encouraging them to float political parties. It is, at this stage, premature to say what is up the sleeve of General Waker-Uz-Zaman, yet it would be worth watching the emerging scenario.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius