Echoes in vicinity

Perhaps never before in the history of Indian parliamentary democracy have South Asian countries evinced so much interest and excitement as with the just concluded 2024 elections. By the time this opinion piece goes to print, the Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe will have attended the oath-taking ceremony of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his cabinet in New Delhi on June 9. Their presence proves the steadfastly reinforced ties between India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh. Bangladesh, in particular, merits special mention as Prime Minister Hasina has proven time and again her strong commitment to cementing relations with India notwithstanding minor ups and downs in bilateral bonhomie despite occasional attempts to impair them by vested quarters. Besides Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, Heads of States of Mauritius, Nepal, Bhutan, and a few more countries were expected to attend the event.

Of all the countries in geographical proximity, Pakistan has reacted strongly with an outpouring of editorials in the mainstream media and animated TV debates. An editorial in a prominent Pakistani daily immediately after the election results were declared opined that if Prime Minister Modi retained power, he would attend the June 15 Ukraine peace conference scheduled in Switzerland. In the same vein, it reckoned that if the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance bloc (I.N.D.I.A.) got at the helm of the government, it could see the possibility of ameliorating relations with Pakistan, which at the moment are at an all-time low. A sense of cautious optimism was being speculated in the Pakistani press, which shows the extent of interest they are exhibiting, and that is not altogether surprising.

Continuing with Pakistani reactions, Zahid Hussain, a well-known columnist, in his analytical write-up says that Prime Minister Modi’s victory, even if diluted, is certainly not a good omen for Pakistan. Relations between the two countries hit a new low under the two previous Modi governments. It is not surprising that the Indian Prime Minister had upped the ante against Pakistan on the election trail. Zahid opines that anti-Pakistan rhetoric has been one of the key factors behind his previous victories.

This might appear a bit far-fetched; nevertheless, that’s what is being perceived in Pakistan in the aftermath of the Indian elections. Also, there is a streak of nervousness in Pakistan about the possibility of the “annexation” of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) by India under Modi in his third term. It describes such Indian “designs” as provocative and suspects the Indian ruling party’s bellicosity. In the same vein, it also admits that political instability and an economic crisis in Pakistan have provided the hardliners with an opportunity to step up pressure on Pakistan. It is also apprehended by some that a third term under Prime Minister Modi has the potential for disastrous consequences for Pakistan. Many of these articulations are not only figments of imagination but also indications of a sense of insecurity prevailing among the general Pakistani mindset.

Meanwhile, a bunch of Pakistani diplomats and security experts assess that given the historical context, where tension with Pakistan has often been leveraged to garner domestic support during unstable political periods, the prospect of a military crisis in the region cannot be ruled out. Again, this seems an exaggeration and stems from a clear sense of insecurity. Abdul Basit, a hawk and former Pakistani High Commissioner to India, has advised the political leadership to tread matters with utmost caution lest it ends up further weakening its Kashmir policy. From these, it is becoming increasingly clear that the election results in India have aroused curiosity, confusion, and uncertainty, especially in the minds of Pakistani watchers, which prima facie look baseless and bereft of any sound reasoning.

‘Daily News’, a widely read Sri Lankan newspaper, in its editorial on June 6, states that the victory of Narendra Modi is an indication that the Indian Prime Minister had not grown stale with the Indian electorate, who looked to a leader that can take the country forward and place it on the world map to compete on equal terms with the superpowers. According to its editorial, the Prime Minister’s victory was anticipated largely due to his charisma and economic policies, which had benefited the Indian middle class. One piece of assessment in ‘Daily News’ also says that the manner in which Prime Minister Modi is dealing with the Kashmir problem and his tough stance against Pakistan and China related to border and security issues may have translated into votes.

As regards reactions in Bangladesh, Mahfuz Anam, the editor and publisher of 'The Daily Star’, says the verdict of India’s election greatly tempered Modi’s shine and energised the opposition. However, Mahfuz Anam feels that by all accounts, Modi’s victory is very impressive.

Interestingly, the column goes on to say that when democracy is on the slide in many countries and elections as events are suffering from many distortions, especially instigated by the ruling party, for India's election to have come through with credibility and overall acceptance is an achievement that must be praised and celebrated by democracy-loving people everywhere. Around 969 million people, 70 per cent of a population of 1.4 billion, were eligible to vote. According to figures from the Election Commission of India, 642 million voters voted, of whom 312 million were women, making for the highest participation by women voters in the country's history. These are no mean compliments by a prominent Bangladeshi journalist articulated through a widely read English newspaper.

Mahfuz Anam, while congratulating India's new leadership, has called for celebrating the victory of democracy of its giant neighbour, with whom Bangladesh has forged a partnership for mutual benefits. It was the might of the verdict of the Indian voters that resonated throughout the world, the region, and also, hopefully, within Bangladesh, where their own voters aspire for the same power. India's election proved once again that, if allowed free expression, the public will always strengthen democracy. More reactions from various quarters are expected as the new government settles into office.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal