Dhaka’s Political Heat

Ahead of this upcoming election in Bangladesh, amid the prevailing turbulent times, enough political heat is generated in the political and social fabric of the country, and the ongoing trend doesn’t look very promising. In these very columns, very recently, it was highlighted that the string of violent happenings is lashing the country. In the ongoing thread of violence, Bongobeer Qader @ Tiger Siddiqui’s Tangail house was attacked and brutally vandalised recently, and the noted freedom fighter’s cars were also torched as an act of mindless assault on a pro-liberation individual who is so revered. Kader Siddiqui is also the founder and President of the Krishak Shramik League. Liberal and secular forces are very upset over the alarmingly rising cases of targeting of forces opposed by the fanatics, clearly indicating that acts of religious intolerance are on the rise. It’s also baffling to note that the security agencies are completely muted and helpless, even though there has been a regime change for over one year, and still, there is not an iota of improvement in the law-and-order scene of the country. It’s even more frustrating that the army and Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) are invested with more powers than before, and yet they are proven ineffective time and again.

In another case of chilling violence in Rajbari, the grave of a Sufi, Nurul Haque alias Nurul Pagla, was inhumanely dug up, the body taken out, hurled with the most abusive insults, and subsequently burned down. It led to violence and injuries to many. Earlier, an organised group of hooligans and zealots proclaiming themselves as part of the “Tauhidi Junta,” armed with weapons and lethal objects, marched to the gravesite before desecrating it in a most grotesque manner. This led to wide condemnation by many in foreign countries, too, including in China, as reported by the South China Morning Post, a leading newspaper. Now the question is, are the authorities complicit in this act of vandalism? Without their tacit support, could this happen? The interim government should answer this and hold someone in the security or political establishment accountable to prevent recurrence. This is not an isolated incident of violence. It is becoming a regular happening, which is highly deplorable.

Meanwhile, October 17 happens to be the death anniversary of the renowned Sufi Saint Lalon Shah, or Lalon Faqir, who is still respected for his Sufi teachings and renditions. His house is perceived to be threatened by religious extremists and fanatics who have the propensity in the present regime to defile it, as they have targeted many other spots. In light of the threat assessment and the rising assaults on liberals’ houses and grave sites, Lalon’s house is being protected by a posse of policemen in Kushtia. The essence of these incidents is again a trend of the religiously zealous elements attaining supremacy and a carte blanche mandate to carry out attacks on those with secular or liberal backgrounds.

Apart from activities of religious intolerance, there are vibrant political happenings which are galloping as the February 2026 election schedules draw closer. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which is upbeat with the wishful thinking of assuming power in the next elections, is warming up to its all-time ally, Pakistan. Very recently, their leadership under party Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, accompanied by other party leaders overseeing foreign affairs, met the newly appointed Pakistani High Commissioner in Dhaka, Imran Haidar. Although details of the meeting have not yet been made public, both parties are believed to have discussed regional political developments, Pakistan-Bangladesh bilateral cooperation, and other issues of mutual interest. Such a crucial meeting happening as the election in Bangladesh is around the corner naturally leads to several speculations.

Here, it must be reiterated that BNP and Pakistan have always been close friends, and this relationship was reinforced during the two terms that BNP leader Khaleda Zia led as head of the government. Moreover, her son Tarique Rahman, who is based in England, is strongly believed to be patronised in all forms by the Pakistani establishment ever since Tarique chose to operate from London. From the latest meeting in Dhaka between the BNP and the Pakistani High Commissioner, it can easily be deduced that their discussions hovered around how Pakistan could extend help to the BNP. Surely, Pakistan would like to invest in every possible manner to ensure BNP’s victory in the upcoming elections. Pakistan wants to seize the vacuum caused by Hasina and the Awami League (AL) last year. It also aspires to occupy that political space by using BNP as a proxy, and as it is, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) already exists as a much-pronounced pro-Pakistan party. Pakistan further wants to make sure that after the political decimation of the AL, no party in Bangladesh has any proximity to India. Under these circumstances, the latest BNP meeting with the new Pakistani High Commissioner assumes huge political significance, meriting close watch.

Again, on the political front, the Jatiya Party (JaPa), in its Central Committee meeting held at Rangpur recently, disclosed that all AL members with a clean image are welcome to join JaPa and that they will be given tickets to contest the February elections. This was confirmed by the party Co-Chairman, Mostafizur Rahman Mustafa. He also announced that his party will field candidates in all 300 constituencies. This revelation has led to political ripples in Gono Odhikar Parishad (GOP), etc., who have been demanding a ban on JaPa and have also been attacking JaPa offices all over the country through violent means.

Judging by all these happenings, it would appear that the country is in the midst of a very interesting but uncertain phase, throwing up multiple security challenges and making the security environment vulnerable, with possibly a violent run-up to the elections. Hence, the near foreseeable future in Bangladesh is expected to be filled with excitement and unpredictability.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius