Deceptive Diplomacy

A question is being asked in India as to how President Trump was able to announce the ceasefire before anyone else did? What was America's role in the matter? No doubt, amid the heightened tensions between India and Pakistan, senior US leaders held multiple high-level conversations with their Indian and Pakistani counterparts. Despite this, Indian government sources have repeatedly stressed that the ceasefire was negotiated directly between New Delhi and Islamabad. Why is Trump trying to take credit when India has repeatedly rejected his claim? Trump's stubborn insistence is because he is trying to reinforce his image of a peacemaker which has taken a beating. As John Bolton, Trump’s former National Security Advisor stated, "It's nothing personal to India. This is Donald Trump, who takes credit for everything." Bolton appears to be correct in his assessment of Trump's behaviour. Since Trump's much touted efforts to end the wars between Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas have not yielded any real results till now, the India-Pakistan conflict and the ceasefire gave Trump a much needed chance to restate his claim that he is a peacemaker 'par excellence'.

It may be recalled that during his campaign, Trump said repeatedly that he would be able to end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in 24 hours” upon taking office. However, Trump changed his tone since becoming President for a second term, perhaps because he realised the difficulties involved. On March 14 this year, he said that he was “being a little bit sarcastic” when he repeatedly claimed as a candidate that he would have the Russia-Ukraine war solved within 24 hours. The Ukraine-Russia war has intensified, taking an increasingly dangerous and destructive course as peace talks appear to have reached a dead end.

Unfortunately, the same has also happened in the case of the Israel-Hamas war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has maintained that the war in Gaza will not end until all hostages are freed and Hamas is either dismantled or forced into exile. On its part, Hamas has insisted it will only release the remaining hostages in exchange for a lasting ceasefire, the release of more Palestinian prisoners, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The US recently proposed a fresh peace plan, and the Trump Administration said that Israel has accepted the plan. However, Hamas has said that proposal favoured the Israeli position and failed to meet any of Hamas' key demands, chiefly a commitment from Israel to end the war, withdraw its forces from Gaza and permit unrestricted aid access to the territory.

Against this background, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan gave Trump a unique opportunity to tout his claim of being a great global peacemaker. Soon after Trump's post, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced at a special briefing that the Director General of Military Operations of Pakistan had initiated a call with his Indian counterpart and both sides had agreed to “stop all firing and military action on land and in the air and sea.” He made no mention of the United States.

There have been some more recent occasions when Trump has doubled down on his claim that it was he who mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. For instance, On May 22, speaking at the White House's Oval Office during a meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump said, "If you take a look at what we just did with Pakistan and India, we settled that whole, and I think I settled it through trade".

India has categorically said that it was the force of arms that “compelled” Pakistan to “stop its firing”. At a press briefing on May 13, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “From the time Operation Sindoor commenced on 7 May till the understanding on cessation of firing and military action on 10 May, there were conversations between Indian and US leaders on the evolving military situation. The issue of trade did not come up in any of these discussions.” This has been India's consistent position all along.

In addition to claiming that he had mediated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, Trump has also offered to mediate on the long-standing Kashmir dispute. He said on his Truth Social platform: "I will work with you both to see if, after a “thousand years,” a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir". Pakistan immediately welcomed Trump’s offer to mediate between India and Pakistan. However, India outright rejected Trump's offer, making it clear that it does not want anyone to mediate when it comes to Kashmir. India said “We have a very clear position on Kashmir, there is only one matter left—the return of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK). There is nothing else to talk about. If they talk about handing over terrorists, we can talk."

It may be recalled that in January 2018, when Trump was in his first term, he had tweeted that "The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over the last 15 years, and they have given us nothing but lies & deceit, thinking of our leaders as fools. No more!” However, Trump is now playing a different tune about Pakistan. In his post in which he took credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire, he complimented the leaderships of both countries. There are reports which suggest that there is a hidden motive behind Trump's sudden change of heart and his new soft corner for Pakistan. Reportedly, Pakistan has sought to curry favour with Trump by promising lucrative business deals to his family and friends. These reportedly include discussions over cryptocurrency ventures and access to mineral resources — both highly strategic domains.

Pakistan's economy remains in shambles and ever dependent on IMF bailouts, and hence it is trying hard to find new avenues of growth. In February 2025, the Pakistan government formed a Crypto Council, and later upgraded it to a full regulatory body called the Pakistan Digital Asset Authority. This new authority will oversee and regulate digital assets like crypto and blockchain-based technologies. In this regard, Pakistan is seizing the opportunity to develop closeness to World Liberty Financial Inc (WLFI), a crypto venture reportedly owned 60 per cent by Trump and his family. Just days after the Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan signed a major cryptocurrency deal with WLF to integrate blockchain technology into its financial systems. The American business magazine Forbes reported on June 5, 2025 that President Trump “is cashing in on crypto. Over the last nine months, beginning slightly before the election, he has stirred up new ventures, new coins, new noise. All of it makes the president money, but how much? About USD 1 billion, lifting his net worth to an estimated USD 5.6 billion”. The Pakistani leadership feels that Trump's involvement in Pakistan could not only help to legitimise the country’s crypto industry and attract further international investment, but also draw Islamabad closer to Washington DC.

How will such a complex scenario affect Indo-US ties? On balance, the future of these ties remains strong and multifaceted, driven by shared strategic interests, growing economic cooperation, and increasing cultural exchange. The US and India are aiming to significantly increase bilateral trade, with a goal of reaching USD 500 billion by 2030. This will likely involve efforts to reduce trade barriers and attract more investment from both countries. Collaboration in areas like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space technology is expected to continue. At the same time, challenges related to trade imbalances, geopolitical differences, and visa issues are impacting the relationship's trajectory. Trump’s 'America First' sloganeering and his transactional approach to diplomacy are already posing challenges for the growth of Indo-US relations. It remains to be seen whether the growing closeness between Trump and Pakistan becomes yet another challenge for India.

The writer is a retired Indian diplomat and had previously served as Consul General in the New York. Views expressed are personal