Confronting the instability

The 21st century has often been referred to as the ‘Asian Century’, with India as a critical player in this transformation. India has made significant strides in various sectors, such as information technology, pharmaceuticals, space technology, and renewable energy. However, its geopolitical location makes the journey towards becoming the next superpower challenging. India's location at the crossroads of several significant countries, cultures, and civilisations makes stabilising the region's geopolitical sphere crucial. The country faces several challenges in its neighbourhood, ranging from governance issues, political instability, ethnic and religious conflicts, economic crises, and border disputes with China and Pakistan. These pressing issues impact and threaten India's stability and security.

Sri Lanka faces numerous challenges in governance, political instability, ethnic tensions, authoritarianism, corruption, human rights abuses, and economic crises. Despite the end of a protracted civil war in 2009, building lasting peace has been difficult. A balance of payment issue in 2018 prompted the IMF to implement austerity measures and structural reforms. In 2002, an unstable power supply due to the BOP issue led to protests and removal of the Rajapaksas. Food insecurity, threats to livelihoods, and increased concerns for protection are currently affecting Sri Lankans, with the poorest and most vulnerable bearing the brunt. This situation will negatively impact Indian investors who have invested in various sectors for decades, and the proximity of Sri Lanka to India and the large Tamil population can impact India's internal security. Displacement of Sri Lankan natives has resulted in them seeking refuge in India, thereby creating social and economic challenges. India must closely monitor the situation in Sri Lanka and take appropriate measures to safeguard its interests.

India's border disputes with China and Pakistan have been a source of tension and conflict between the countries, and they remain unresolved to this day. The India-China border dispute centres around the Line of Actual Control (LAC). In contrast, the India-Pakistan border dispute is focused on the Line of Control (LoC), separating Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Terrorism and insurgency have been persistent challenges in India's neighbourhood, with militant groups operating in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and parts of India's northeast region. These groups have been responsible for several high-profile attacks, including the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2019 Pulwama attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Pakistan's ongoing political, economic, and security challenges pose a significant threat to regional stability and India's security. Despite the removal of former PM Imran Khan, the country continues to face instability and division. The government's focus on politicking has stalled IMF loan tranches of USD 1.1 billion, adding to the economic crises caused by inflation, dwindling foreign reserves, and catastrophic floods. The flood, which killed over 1,700 people and destroyed cropland, infrastructure, and homes, have been attributed to climate change, with the government raising awareness and securing aid for recovery efforts. However, the country's dependence on external debt and political instability continue to hinder progress. India must closely monitor the situation in Pakistan to safeguard its security interests, given the potential impact on regional stability.

It is imperative for India to closely monitor the situation in Pakistan and take pre-emptive measures to ensure stability and peace in the South Asian region. The self-sabotaging nature of Pakistan, coupled with China's aggressive approach to world domination, can upset the international dynamics. China's hostile tactics have led to a realignment of regional geopolitical alliances. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) challenges India's efforts to increase regional connectivity. China has been expanding its influence through initiatives such as BRI and growing its presence in countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, which threatens India's strategic interests.

Since its onset in 2017, the Rohingya crisis has had a significant impact on the region, with hundreds of thousands of Rohingya Muslims fleeing Myanmar for neighbouring Bangladesh. In addition to the Rohingya crisis, tensions between Hindus and Muslims have been a cause of concern in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Bangladesh has experienced frequent clashes between supporters of the ruling Awami League and opposition parties, as well as between Hindus and Muslims. Despite being tagged as an overpopulated country, India is emerging as a haven for displaced residents seeking refuge for a secure future, regardless of their ethnicity and religious orientation.

These issues highlight the complex and interconnected challenges facing India's neighbourhood and underscore the need for sustained efforts to promote peace, stability, and cooperation in the region. In addition, India’s "neighbourhood first" policy has been reflected in India's engagement with countries such as Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan, among others. It has also been actively involved in regional forums such as SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation), BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) to strengthen regional cooperation and address common challenges.

India has been actively addressing its neighbours’ concerns by providing developmental assistance, humanitarian aid, and capacity-building programs. India has also promoted regional connectivity and cooperation through initiatives such as the International North-South Transport Corridor, the Chabahar port project, and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor. India has also been working towards enhancing its defence and security cooperation with its neighbours, including joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and border management.

India respects sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non- interference in internal affairs of its neighbours. It advocates for peaceful conflict resolution through dialogue and collective action on issues like terrorism, transnational crime, and climate change.

India's growth trajectory and potential for the 21st century is promising, and the country has the opportunity to become a key player in the global arena. However, India must continue to address the swelling issues and work towards sustainable and inclusive growth to truly make this century 'India's Century.' The diplomatic approach has been instrumental in the face of instability and chaos, demonstrating that the world truly is its oyster.

Views expressed are personal