Concerns of resurgence?

Taking the world for a shock and surprise, the once rag-tag forces of Afghanistan’s religious extremist regime are trying to enhance their military prowess by repairing the aircraft and helicopters left over by the United States and their NATO allies as well as the previous rulers of the war-torn nation. Even though the number of these aircrafts are currently small and several of them require heavy repairs, the Islamist Taliban rulers are showcasing their government's military power by frequently displaying repaired helicopters and planes from the country's inventory of ageing aircraft. The Taliban forces, which have so far relied on small arms, rocket launchers, improvised explosives and suicide bombers to wage war, are now clearly making efforts to realise their dreams of building a modern air force. So, the fears that Afghanistan would again become a hotbed of international terrorism seem to be turning into a harsh reality.

However, a serious shortage of pilots, aircraft engineers, technicians and other related staff has been a major factor that has thwarted these efforts so far. Besides, the high cost of repair and maintenance of planes and choppers, along with the sanctions by the US and other governments, have also been factors preventing the Taliban from acquiring the technology and qualified manpower.

According to the latest media reports emanating from the Afghan Taliban communication office, on May 21, two pilots were killed after their US-made helicopter crashed in the northern province of Samangan. The MD-530 multi-mission military aircraft was on patrol when it plunged to the ground, according to the Taliban spokesman. It was the latest of at least five verified military aviation accidents recorded since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. All helicopters from the previous government's patchwork fleet of mostly American and Russian-built aircraft involved in accidents so far, have mostly been caused by pilot error. While the Taliban has shown that it can make use of helicopters and some leftover planes in response to humanitarian disasters or to meet its threat perceptions, it is seen as being far from recreating a functional air force capable of securing the Afghan skies in the event of foreign incursions or domestic insurgencies.

According to recent reports, Taliban military officials claimed to have repaired some 70 helicopters and military planes. These officials said their amnesty scheme for former Afghan military pilots and ground crews attracted just about 40 pilots and technicians to return and work for the Taliban's Defence Ministry. The Taliban had inherited more than 100 aircraft, most of which were inoperable when it returned to power. The erstwhile Western-backed Afghan republic had 162 aircraft (planes and choppers). Of these, 131 were airworthy just before the government's collapse in August 2021, according to the U.S. Special Inspector-General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. Some 25 per cent of these aircraft were flown to neighbouring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as Taliban fighters advanced on Kabul. Dozens more were rendered inoperable as Western forces headed for a final exit. Fearing Taliban reprisals, hundreds of former pilots and ground crew have already fled Afghanistan.

In a report tabled before the United Nations Security Council last year, interesting data was on the existence of a large number of aircraft of the US and NATO allies falling into the hands of the Taliban. It said the Taliban itself had claimed "to have 40 operational aircraft. Currently (in mid-2022), these are believed to include two Mi-17 helicopters confirmed as operational, along with two UH-60 Black Hawks, two MD-530 Cayuse light helicopters, two Mi-24 helicopter gunships and one fixed-wing transport aircraft, all of which have been observed flying." However, the report said these aircraft had "little military utility". This UN report also said that there has been a proliferation of all kinds of sophisticated weapons and military equipment in Afghanistan, which have now found their way to terror strongholds in the Middle East and Africa. Since the Taliban takeover, several countries in the neighbourhood have reported the emergence of large stockpiles of weapons left in the open by the US and allied forces, which are now in the hands of extremist and terror outfits. The weapons include huge numbers of AK-47s, medium-range rocket launchers and M-14 and M-16 rifles. It also noted a free trade in frequency jammers within Afghanistan. The team, in its report tabled in UNSC in July last year, said these equipment, specifically thermal imagers and sophisticated night-vision equipment, "which allow for enhanced surveillance and targeted precise attacks", were already being used against national forces in countries neighbouring Afghanistan. "Remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) (are being used) by ISIL in northern Iraq. With the commercial availability of low-cost, high-tech RPAS, which are difficult to track, groups such as ISIL can identify and attack targets with a high degree of accuracy," the report said.

However, Afghan watchers in the United States say there was nothing much to worry about regarding the Taliban Air Force, with one of them saying, "If anything, it can become more symbolic." Amin Tarzi, director of Middle East Studies at the US Marine Corps University, said the Taliban would need to conduct a significant amount of training for pilots and develop strategies for communication and coordination with ground forces, to build a viable air force. "Despite the Taliban propaganda, this air force won't become a major threat to anyone in the region," he said. "For whatever reason, they think the air force makes you a more formidable or formal force."

Tarzi says that even before the United States indicated it wanted to withdraw from Afghanistan by signing a peace agreement with the Taliban in February 2020, the Afghan Air Force was already an “anaemic institution”. He pointed out that deficiencies such as shortage in Afghanistan’s over-reliance on Western support, lack of pilots and technical manpower and incapability to operate independently were critical. "The idea that the Afghan Air Force was intact and operational was erroneous," he said. Afghanistan's first modern air force emerged under King Zahir Shah in the 1960s with Soviet aircraft. During the Soviet occupation, the pro-Moscow socialist government established a formidable air force with hundreds of Soviet jets, cargo planes and helicopters. But the air force split into several rival aviation units controlled by warring warlords. During the Taliban’s first stint in power in the 1990s, its air force possessed some jets and helicopters operated by Afghan pilots and technicians who had defected to the extremist outfit.

The Air Force of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan currently makes use of airports in Kabul, Mazar-e Sharif and Kandahar as main operating bases, with frequent forward deployments to smaller airports located throughout the mountainous country. It mostly operates helicopters and rugged transport aircraft that need little servicing between flights and can easily operate from unprepared airstrips.

Author Lukas Muller's book, 'Wings Over The Hindu Kush', which documents the history of the Afghan air force between 1989 and 2001, says that currently, only a small number of Taliban fighters serve in the air force, which is mainly manned by pilots and technicians trained by the United States and its allies. Some were even trained during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Taliban is attempting to train new pilots but has not released figures showing the number of pilots and technicians it has, suggesting a shortage of qualified personnel. Muller said that while the Taliban has utilized its planes and helicopters for transporting troops, military and humanitarian cargo, the actual deployment of combat aircraft remains unverified. He says that the Taliban has also currently not deployed its combat helicopters, such as the MD-530s or Russian-made Mi-35s, to actively engage opposition forces in the northern province of Panjshir, which has been a hotbed of anti-Taliban armed resistance.

The future composition of the Air Force of the Taliban regime will not only depend on the number of aircraft it can restore and keep operational but also on the number of pilots and aircraft engineers and technicians it manages to recruit or train to fly these types of planes and choppers. Though such efforts by the ruling Islamic extremists pose no threat currently or in the near future, developments in this regard should be monitored very closely.

Views expressed are personal