Bangladesh At The Brink

By the time this opinion piece reaches the readers, the 13th Parliamentary elections of Bangladesh will be less than a week away. Two principal political parties are in the fray: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). Interestingly, due to the aggressive posturing of BNP party Chairman Tarique Rahman, who has repeatedly targeted the Jamaat, the two parties appear to be distancing themselves from each other. At an election rally in Mymensingh on January 27, Tarique described the Jamaat as echoing the language of a fascist, insinuating Sheikh Hasina’s political proximity to Jamaat.

If crowd size is any indication, Tarique Rahman has been drawing massive support at BNP’s political rallies. At this particular gathering, the drive from Dhaka to Mymensingh witnessed an overwhelming turnout, causing serious traffic disruptions. As of now, BNP appears to have an edge over its close adversary, the Jamaat, with pollsters forecasting a 33 per cent chance of a BNP victory compared to around 29 per cent for Jamaat. Although BNP and Jamaat are trading allegations and counter-allegations against each other, political analysts do not rule out Jamaat’s participation in a BNP-led government should BNP emerge as the single largest party. To make up for any shortfall in forming a government, BNP might seek Jamaat as a coalition partner, as was the case during BNP’s rule from 2001 to 2006. It is worth recalling that two senior Jamaat leaders, Motiur Rahman Nizami and Ali Ahsan Mohammad Mujahid, held significant cabinet portfolios during that period. The current friction between the two parties may also be tactical, while in reality, they could have a tacit understanding to collaborate in governance should the BNP come to power.

Separately, while Tarique Rahman was in exile in the United Kingdom for 17 years, he is widely believed to have been cultivated and influenced by Pakistan’s Deep State, which may have provided him a strategic blueprint in the event of his assuming power. Similarly, Jamaat’s pro-Pakistan leanings and its ideological and logistical ties with Pakistan are well documented. This presents an opportunity for Pakistan to attempt to bring both parties together with a singular objective: to target India through subversive activities, potentially channelled via the Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Since Sheikh Hasina’s removal from power, the Yunus-led interim government has shown increasing warmth toward Pakistan across multiple domains. There have been several high-level exchanges between the two countries aimed at strengthening military, political, and cultural ties — cooperation that was conspicuously absent during the Hasina regime. Hence, a BNP-led government, or a BNP-Jamaat coalition, could pursue policies detrimental to India’s security interests. It has been repeatedly argued that if either BNP, Jamaat, or a coalition of both assumes power, Indian interests will likely suffer while Pakistan stands to gain in advancing its anti-India agenda.

As the election campaign enters a feverish phase, the possibility of violence appears increasingly real. According to an Al Jazeera report, at least 16 political activists have been killed since elections were announced, reviving fears of a return to widespread political violence that many Bangladeshis had hoped was behind them. This unrest may intensify during campaigning and even on polling day. Many believed that the era of fear had ended with Hasina’s ouster, but in reality, political instability has deepened. While the interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has not been accused of orchestrating violence, political clashes are rising ahead of the polls. This will be Bangladesh’s first election since Hasina was removed from power, ending more than 15 years of rule. The Yunus administration is also overseeing a referendum on state reforms alongside the election, with around 120 million eligible voters out of a population of approximately 170 million. A series of killings, threats, and street clashes is rekindling the anxieties of past election-season violence that Bangladesh has repeatedly experienced over the years.

Across Bangladesh’s 300 constituencies, the BNP is leading a coalition of 10 like-minded parties. Meanwhile, Jamaat is heading a separate 11-party alliance that includes the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by students who spearheaded the anti-Hasina movement. Outside these blocs, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, which broke away from the Jamaat-led alliance, and the Jatiya Party (JP), a longtime ally of Hasina’s Awami League (AL), are contesting independently. The Awami League itself is absent from the election, as Yunus’s administration banned its political activities in May last year. Despite the ideological diversity among contesting parties, a wave of killings and violent attacks continues across the country.

While analysing the February 12 election, it is crucial to note that although the Awami League is not contesting, its traditional voter base will still exercise its franchise. The key question is: whom will they vote for? The Jatiya Party, fielding around 100 candidates, may secure support in northern Bangladesh, where it has historically enjoyed a strong base, particularly in areas once dominated by General Ershad. However, most traditional AL voters are unlikely to support either BNP or Jamaat, despite both parties actively courting minority communities and pro-liberation constituencies. These efforts may not significantly shift voting patterns.

In sum, with violence looming large, the army may step in to maintain law and order. Should the situation deteriorate, security forces may remain deployed on the streets for an extended period until stability is restored. Election campaigning and increasingly belligerent rhetoric have already transformed the political atmosphere, setting the stage for a volatile electoral process. One can only hope that the country avoids widespread bloodshed and chaos in the days ahead.

Views expressed are personal. The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius