At the crossroads

Last week, in the first part of this two-part article, we discussed how three factors — oncoming provincial and general elections, economic woes and public despondency, and tough external choices present before Pakistan — have contributed to the ongoing political-economic turmoil in the country. In this concluding piece, we shall delve deeper in the remaining three factors, along with a prognosis towards the end.

Activism by overseas Pakistani expatriates

Pakistan has a large overseas diaspora, wielding significant political influence in the US, UK, Canada, West Asia, and Europe. The ongoing political turmoil in Pakistan has been reflected in the activism of groups of Pakistani expatriates in the above mentioned countries. Imran Khan's supporters have been mobilizing in large numbers to protest against the so-called "regime change" operation which, they claim, led to the PTI's ouster from power in 2022. The trend of influential dissident actors and journalists taking to social media to vent out their disaffection against the meddling by the “establishment” has seen a marked rise, and this has helped Imran Khan gain support among many expatriate Pakistanis. Vloggers and journalists operating from the US, UK, and Europe have a wide following in Pakistan, where their critical views evade censorship due to the universal nature of the Internet. The military establishment has been unable to rein in some popular vloggers who formerly had close ties with the ruling establishment, granting them unique insights into Pakistan's domestic politics.

The popularity of political content on social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram, particularly among the youth, is an important factor influencing the domestic political discourse in Pakistan. In a notable development, at the behest of the Pakistani American Political Action Committee, as many as 66 US Congressmen recently wrote to President Biden urging him to prioritize the promotion and protection of democracy and human rights in Pakistan. The lawmakers also implored Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to encourage Islamabad to "investigate any violations of freedom of speech and freedom of assembly in Pakistan." Supporters of Khan also staged demonstrations outside the Pakistan High Commission in London following his recent arrest. The public support expressed by former US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad for Imran Khan, including his critical remarks against the Army Chief, as well as the reported phone conversation between former US National Security Adviser John Bolton and Khan, are noteworthy developments.

Resentment among military veterans

An important factor that has traditionally helped the Pakistani military establishment maintain ubiquitous control over the nation's political trajectory is the bipartisan consensus among the larger military fraternity — consisting of serving and retired officers — that the Pak Fauj is the ultimate savior of Pakistan and custodian of its national interests. In the past, the usurpation of political power by military generals and covert "political engineering" by the military establishment were generally accepted without much complaint from the people, who held the military in higher esteem than the political classes. Furthermore, in earlier times, veterans, as an interest group, typically displayed loyalty to the reigning military establishment. However, this aspect has also undergone a steady transformation, with divisions arising among military veterans regarding how the political affairs of the nation should be managed. Two recent press releases by Veterans of Pakistan, an association, condemning the police actions against the families of former senior military officers during the crackdown following the political violence of May 9, are emblematic of the angst felt within sections of the military veteran community about the current state of affairs. Veterans sympathetic to diverse political actors in Pakistan, critical of the current Army Chief, as well as those supporting the narratives of the Inter Service Public Relations (the Army's official mouthpiece) have been active in Pakistan's media space.

Military’s survival instincts.

The military establishment of Pakistan finds itself at an epochal moment today. For the first time since Pakistan's defeat in the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971, it faces a high degree of skepticism and diminished credibility among certain segments of the population. The Army Chief has displayed his determination to thwart Imran Khan's ambitions by announcing that trials of civilians accused of recent arson on military properties and violence would be conducted in special Army Courts, under the Army Act. If implemented, this could further sharpen divisions across the political spectrum. Thousands of PTI workers have been arrested, and some senior leaders have been coerced into leaving the party. To accord a modicum of political stability, the establishment may seek to foster a broad understanding among the traditionally influential political actors, including Bilawal Bhutto Zardari (PPP) and the Sharif family (PMLN), to unite in the provincial and national elections. There have also been speculations that the military establishment favors the return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, currently in self-imposed exile in the UK, to emerge as a frontrunner in the power struggle at the "opportune time". Furthermore, there may be an attempt to gradually populate the top echelons of the judiciary with judges who are not particularly sympathetic to the PTI. With the tenure of the current Chief Justice set to end in mid-September 2023, various possibilities could emerge for influential actors to impact the future of the judiciary. The establishment remains concerned about the dire fiscal situation, which will ultimately have a negative impact on the defense budget. Overall, the evolving institutional stance of the Army is a crucial factor that will profoundly influence the political landscape.

Prognosis

The political crisis in Pakistan is at a precarious juncture, with opposing sides taking hardline positions against each other. The direction the situation takes depends greatly on the stance of the powerful military establishment, which has directly or indirectly governed Pakistan throughout its history, for better or worse. A variety of hitherto less influential factors, such as the impact of social media, advocacy by veterans and expatriates, and civil society activism, are now playing a role with greater impact than ever before. Few believe that Imran Khan will back down in his struggle against the PDM coalition, which is believed to have staunch support from the military establishment. If Khan is arrested again, it may trigger unexpected reactions from various quarters, making the prospect of holding peaceful elections this year more challenging. Thus far, Pakistan's key international partners have chosen to remain publicly silent on the crisis. However, the very real danger of an economic default and potential civil unrest may change this. Ultimately, in the face of international pressure, the military establishment may have to make pragmatic adjustments to its hardline policy against Imran Khan and the PTI in order to prevent a disastrous meltdown for the nation.

The writer is an IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, security analyst and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal