At an all-time low

Against the backdrop of fast deteriorating relations between India and Türkiye, particularly in the wake of recent Indo-Pak military escalation, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Istanbul on May 25 aimed at increasing solidarity in education, intelligence sharing and technological support. Türkiye President’s talks with his Pakistani counterpart, weeks after a military conflict between Islamabad and New Delhi, assume immense geopolitical significance. The recently held meeting in Istanbul comes as Ankara faces a strong backlash from India over its supply of weapons to Islamabad during the recent conflict.

Recently, Erdogan had openly expressed solidarity with Pakistan over India’s attacks across nine sites in Pakistan as a retaliatory measure following the Pahalgam terror attack which left 26 innocents dead. Earlier, Türkiye had warned of a risk of an all-out war between India and Pakistan, while expressing support for Islamabad’s request for an international inquiry into the Pahalgam attack. Türkiye and Pakistan have long had close economic and military ties. In February, Erdogan visited Islamabad, during which the two countries signed 24 cooperation agreements to bolster bilateral ties. We see a design and a pattern in the consistent Türkiye interest in meddling in bilateral matters of India and Pakistan and walking the extra mile to further befriend Pakistan.

Meanwhile, grocery shops and leading online fashion retailers in India declared a complete boycott of Türkish products, including clothing. Indian fashion websites owned by Flipkart Retail and Reliance removed numerous Türkish apparel brands from their sites. Indian travel companies also suspended bookings of flights, hotels and holiday packages to Türkiye in solidarity with India’s national interest and sovereignty. Also, India’s Civil Aviation Ministry revoked (May 15) the security clearance of the Türkish-based aviation ground handling firm Celebi.

While discussing Pakistan’s growing proximity to Türkiye and India’s declining relations with the latter, it may be recalled that from fishing in the troubled waters of Syria to doing business in both war and peace between Russia and Ukraine and standing by “brotherly” Pakistan in military stand-off with India, Türkish footprints, rather those of its stubborn President Erdogan, are at play everywhere. It may be safely assessed that Türkiye wants to play a “role” in South Asia to register its presence, like it is doing almost everywhere. For Erdogan and his Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), authoritarianism at home and selling faith and trading goods abroad has been a policy manual culled from the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) playbook. It may be recalled that Erdogan rose to power when Türkiye was in the throes of several insecurities. He drew capital out of Islamist manoeuvring and sentimentalism. He mixed religion with economic turnaround. Rural, poor and lower middle classes saw in him a saviour.

Since Islamism is believed to be a currency infected with everlasting conflicts, Erdogan’s Türkiye began to voice solidarity on every issue that would win its following among the Muslims. When the Arab Spring broke out in 2011 and the United States, struggled to navigate a path, Türkiye exploited the opportunity. First, it threw weight behind the rebels in Libya and Erdogan, himself flew to Tripoli and attended Friday prayers at Tripoli. Soon, the Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi was captured and killed.

The most condemnable role that Türkiye played has been in its immediate neighbourhood – Syria and in the Kurdish regions. After the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the wake of a 13-year civil war, Türkiye is being portrayed as a winner. Islamists backed by Türkiye, shepherded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an affiliate of Al Qaeda, and led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who, like his organisation, has been a designated and reward-carrying terrorist. From 2015, the US and other Western powers shifted their focus to fighting radical Islamists, but Ankara continued backing them, preparing a backyard where it would wield unchallenged influence. However, this was also the period when a dreaded terror outfit – Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), or Daesh – sprang up to bloody the war theatre. Simultaneously, Russia sent its troops to save the Assad regime. The US decided to rely on the Kurdish-led People’s Defence Units (YPG) by arming them in the growing fight against ISIS, but Türkiye pounded Kurds at every available pretext, often compromising the fight against ISIS, whose brutalities dwarfed all known inhuman excesses. In other words, Türkiye had a very destructive and negative role to play in this region.

Coming back to Pakistan, hit by crises on multiple fronts, Pakistan is forced to rely on countries other than China, which, contrary to prevailing perception, doesn’t overflow with munificence. Arab states are also investing in the expectation of a rich quid pro quo. Türkiye thus has opportunistically filled a vacuum. It approached Pakistan, Afghanistan and India at the same time. In Pakistan, it saw more keen customers for both its equipment and more for its brand of Islamist ideology. The Pakistani public is mad after popular Türkish TV dramas. Ertugrul and Osman’s series based on Ottoman history have been a rage.

The defence partnership between Türkiye and Pakistan has expanded with projects such as Milgem warships, aircraft modernization, and drone acquisitions, deepening and expanding military collaboration. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 11 per cent of Pakistan’s arms imports come from Türkiye now, making it the third largest arms supplier to Islamabad after China and the Netherlands. Many Türkish companies have won contracts to develop special economic zones in leading Pakistani cities. Subsequently, Türkiye resorted to batting for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue and even linked it to a wider Muslim ummah (community). It also sold Pakistan its Bayraktar TB-2 armed UAV drones as it did to Russia and Ukraine. As soon as the recent conflict between India and Pakistan heightened, Türkiye sent an “emergency” supply of these drones to assist the Pakistan Army. Pakistan fired a barrage of these drones into India on May 8 and 9. They killed five Muslims in Jammu, including children. The lust for war hence ended in the blood of his Muslim brothers, but Erdogan is numb to such acts. His hands are stained with the blood of so many innocents that a few more will not move his heart or stop his sadistic ambitions.

Türkiye’s designs to destabilise governments and poke its nose in Syria and other areas are well known. Its growing closeness with Pakistan and distancing from India must lead to fresh thinking by India to reorient its policy towards Türkiye. It will not be surprising if Türkiye makes gradual inroads into Bangladesh, too, given its vulnerability and political instability. Erdogan’s marketing of his brand of religious ideology is well known. Under the circumstances, Erdogan and his multiple intentions must be checked at any cost lest the South Asia region is afflicted by his ambitions and nefarious expansionist designs.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, Adviser NatStrat, and a former National Security Advisor in Mauritius. Views expressed are personal