A challenging ascension

The responsibilities lying ahead for the new Chief of Army Staff (COAS) of Pakistan, General Asim Munir, are not easy, as the country is already beleaguered with a severe economic crisis, a threatening political instability, battered international image, down sliding credibility of the armed forces as also of the all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) etc. From the word go, Asim Munir has to tackle multiple challenges on various fronts. Although Munir had been the head of the ISI and had the exposure to the infamous spy agency, because of the huge question mark on the Army and ISI, which is inherited from his predecessor General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the task for him looks more than onerous.

To elaborate further, ISI's reputation got tainted because of multiple reasons. The suspected killing of Arshad Sharif by the ISI in Kenya, and the ISI's complicity with terror groups within Pakistan and Afghanistan, have made things much more complicated than they appear on the surface. Plus, the recent controversial remarks made by the outgoing Army Chief, General Bajwa, at an Army gathering on November 23, where he blamed the political leadership rather than the military for the 1971 humiliating defeat, calls for an extraordinary effort to keep the political class in good humour. At the same time, Munir has to do a balancing act to keep the much-politicized armed forces on his right side.

First and foremost, Asim Munir not only has to remain apolitical to enhance the Army's credibility but he also has to be seen as apolitical. As history records, Pakistan's military has had consistent military ambitions uppermost in their minds — staging coups and counter-coups, usurping power at gunpoint and ruling for years by subverting political institutions and the constitutional machinery. It would seem, by this pattern of history, that Pakistani people, in general, are largely reconciled to the fact that the Army's intervention in civilian matters, including forcibly grabbing power, is more of a routine than an exception. Asim Munir would do well to the modern generation of Pakistanis to show that there is a professional General who will stay away from meddling in political activities, and serve at the helm, making the military a more professional and dedicated force for humanitarian purposes rather than indulging in corruption and nepotism, and collaborating with terror groups for perpetuating cross-border terrorism. Also, the integrity of the Army Chief and his forces will be under scanner as General Bajwa has left behind a trail of scandals, with allegations of amassing wealth through disproportionate means and granting favours to his family members. Hence, Munir has to tread with caution on his personal probity and professionalism.

A few experts, in the meantime, feel that to restore the Army's image, Munir may consider launching a new military operation in the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)-affected tribal areas in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province. He can also think of other military operations like Zarb-e-Azb (2014) and Radd-ul-Fasaad (2017), to mark Army's presence and consolidate power. General Munir may decide the future of the peace dialogue with the TTP, which stands stalled after the Pakistani government wavered on accepting the militant group's demands.

Among the many important tasks the new Army Chief is entrusted with, the most crucial one would be to handle the ISI component, which requires very delicate handling. He has to remember that PM Shebhaz Sharif is running the government as a proxy, as the main person behind all the political machinations is London-based former PM Nawaz Sharif. So, one more figure requires to be handled with extreme caution. No doubt, Nawaz Sharif must have endorsed Munir's appointment as the COAS but, as an astute politician and having suffered a coup himself from General Pervez Musharraf in the past, he would always be circumspect with the Army Chief while sitting on the edges. In this regard, he has to be doubly watchful of the current ISI chief, Lieutenant General Nadeem Anjum. Anjum is considered to be pro-US, which was amply demonstrated by the fact that he is believed to have helped the US in neutralizing Ayman al Zawahiri. Coincidently or otherwise, this was preceded by the US' extension of the USD 450 million package for the F16 planes for "counterterrorism" to Pakistan. Munir also has to be careful in dealing with India, as having headed the ISI and the Military Intelligence (MI), his focus was concentrated on India, as also during his tenure as head of the X Corps and Corps Commander Gujranwala. Both appointments called for a sharp eye on India. In his new avatar, if Munir does anything which is seen as detrimental to Indian security interests, he will have to face the flak of Nawaz Sharif and other elements within and outside Pakistan who do not favour a hawkish attitude towards India.

In sum, Munir needs to work overtime to keep the political dispensation and the armed forces as cohesive units for smooth functioning. Any slight deviation from this commitment might prove costly for Munir's reputation and could be a non-starter for his ambitious innings. He perhaps needs to heed this critical advice.

The writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the PM of Mauritius. Views expressed are personal