1000 days as Prime Minister

On February 19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will complete 1000 days in office. It is indeed a time not only to look back but also look forward. What does his progress report look like? Has he passed with distinction as the BJP would have us believe or has he failed as the Congress-led opposition claims? The truth is that he has achieved much, but there is much more to do if he bids for power for the second time in 2019.

The BJP has increased its tally and is in power in eight states and coalition in five states. The party has done well in the Assembly polls in the past three years except in Bihar and Delhi. BJP has overtaken Congress and has emerged as the biggest party in its membership. The results of this year's five Assembly polls will be known on March 11.

The next two years may well be defining years as Modi moves to the rest of his five-year term. The BJP strategists have already begun preparations for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Every step has been taken with his second term in view, be it the surgical strike against Pakistan or the demonetisation or preparations for this year's Assembly polls as well as next year's eight Assembly elections. With every step, he is looking to expand his voter base apart from retaining the core voters. Did he not prepare for his Prime Ministerial race from 2012?

Modi's success is more visible in foreign policy initiatives as he has raised the profile of India abroad and also built up the Diaspora. Relations with the US have improved in a significant manner so also have ties with Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan but Modi's Pakistan policy has flip- flopped. The African conference last year had increased interaction with 54 African countries. With Latin America and Japan also, there is a quiet improvement. Moscow is a little concerned about Indo-US ties. However, what is important is the remainder of his five-year term.

The electoral schedule is quite heavy for the next biennium. Assembly polls are due in Gujarat, Nagaland, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura, Mizoram, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Odisha after the present phase of elections till Lok Sabha poll. If BJP does well, Modi will have more maneuverability to attempt more political and economic reforms.

Secondly, March 11 will show whether Modi can have a person of his choice as President and Vice President. Elections for these are scheduled in July 2017. With Modi on his campaign mode and adopting a confrontational attitude in Parliament, any agreement with the opposition will require some give and take. The fight with the Congress would only sharpen because, in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, there is likely to be a direct fight between BJP and Congress.

When it comes to domestic performance, the economy is doing better, and the GDP growth is pegged at 7 per cent, which is good. Inflation is almost half of what it was a couple of years ago. India's budget deficit has shrunken. Foreign direct investment and foreign exchange reserves have reached new heights. Since there is less room for more high stake economic measures, Modi has to build on what is there at hand to generate brisk economic growth and spend big money on infrastructure and rural economy. Where it has not done well is on job creation and failure to get reform measures passed by Parliament, as it is work in progress. The jury is out on the demonetisation move whether it is going to be a pain or gain.

Even the BJP leaders are watching whether the gamble would pay political dividends to the BJP. Modi's masterstroke on the demonetisation was more political than economic, as he is targeting the votes from the poor and adding this constituency to his traditional base of Brahmin and Bania and Other Backward Classes. On the black money issue, will Modi take it forward to target the benami holders and attempt electoral reforms? This could be a double-edged sword.

The second is the agriculture sector, which needs more money to be pumped in. This year's good monsoon is good news for the government, but one cannot be sure about the next two years given the vagaries of monsoon. The increasing number of farmers' suicide should be addressed. This matter needs to be tackled without loss of time, as farmers are the backbone of India.

Thirdly, the country had benefited by the slide in oil price, but it is not known whether they will continue to be the same next year. If the fuel prices rise, it will hurt the common man, as it would affect transportation sector also.

Fourthly, Modi has to ensure implementation of several new schemes he had launched like Make in India, Skill India, Swatch Bharat, and Jan Dhan Yojana to name a few so that it reaches the beneficiaries. There could also be other imponderables.

In short, it is crucial for Modi to keep up the momentum in economic, foreign policy, and political arenas in the next two years to come back to power.