Win-win situation? With Haryana locked, UP by-polls could double the joy for BJP
Lucknow: The recent election results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir are set to significantly impact the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh, especially as the BJP seeks to regain momentum following its setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections and unfavourable exit polls.
The results have boosted the morale of the BJP, providing fresh energy for the upcoming by-elections in UP.
Meanwhile, internal conflicts within the opposition INDIA alliance — stemming from seat-sharing disputes in both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir — are likely to strain the relationship between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress in UP, weakening their ability to present a united front ahead of key electoral battles.
Political analysts believe the BJP’s surprise victory in Haryana and its strong showing in J&K will reignite enthusiasm among the party’s base. After the BJP’s Lok Sabha losses, both party workers and government ministers had expressed concerns about the challenges posed by the opposition’s narratives surrounding reservations and the Constitution.
However, with these recent wins, the political tide has shifted in BJP’s favour. “The by-elections will now be easier for the BJP,” suggested political analyst Rajesh N Bajpayee.
The BJP had been facing growing disillusionment among its workers, but that is all set to evaporate and bring in positivity. “This win will create a positive environment for the BJP, and previously disengaged workers will be re-energised,” said Bajpayee.
The SP had parted ways with the INDIA alliance in J&K, fielding its own candidates to undercut the BJP’s vote share. However, the strategy failed as the SP struggled to make significant gains. The results also highlighted Congress’ reluctance to accommodate SP in seat-sharing negotiations, deepening rifts within the alliance. In Haryana, the Congress didn’t allocate any seats to SP, further intensifying tensions.
According to Bajpayee, these election results have weakened the INDIA alliance in UP. Before the Haryana and J&K polls, the SP-Congress alliance had applied psychological pressure on the BJP following their Lok Sabha gains.
“If Congress had secured a stronger victory in these Assembly elections, the INDIA alliance could have continued to challenge the BJP in UP,” Bajpayee noted. “But with BJP securing its third consecutive victory in Haryana, the alliance is losing its ability to keep the BJP on the defensive.”
BJP’s decision to replace Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the Chief Minister in Haryana is expected to play a crucial role in mobilising key voter blocs in UP. Communities such as the Saini, Shakya, Maurya and Kushwaha, which represent significant electoral numbers in UP, are now likely to rally behind the BJP following Saini’s success. With UP’s Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya also representing this demographic, these election results are seen as a major factor in consolidating the BJP’s support among backward caste groups.
The results also signal a reduction in Congress’s bargaining power with SP in UP, casting doubts on its influence in the upcoming by-elections for 10 Assembly seats.
