Maharashtra assembly Speaker's ruling in Shiv Sena split case on expected lines, say Analysts

Maharashtra assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar's ruling recognizing Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's party as the "real" Shiv Sena in the MLAs disqualification case was on expected lines, political analysts said on Wednesday, but differed on who among the rival factions will benefit from the verdict.

Political analyst Prakash Akolkar said Narwekar's decision on the cross-petitions by Shiv Sena factions seeking disqualification of each other's MLAs following a split in the party in 2022 was on expected lines and it was unlikely it will hurt the Shinde-led government in which the BJP and the NCP (Ajit Pawar group) are also partners.

He, however, contended that it appears the ruling has exceeded the brief given to the Speaker by the Supreme Court.

Akolkar maintained the decision to recognize the Shinde-led party as the "real" Shiv Sena will help garner people's sympathy for former CM Uddhav Thackeray, who stepped down in June 2022 following a split in the saffron outfit founded by his father in 1966, in the upcoming elections.

"This is expected to benefit Uddhav as he will get sympathy. Now, the real fight will be before the people who will decide the real Shiv Sena," said Akolkar, the author of a book on the 57-year-old outfit, 'Ha Shiv Senanava cha Itihas aahe' (This is the history of Shiv Sena).

Sanjay Kumar of the Delhi-based Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) also said the decision of Narwekar was expected and cited numbers stacked heavily in favour of Shinde. The decision gave the Shinde-led Sena a more legal heft, he observed.

Kumar said the verdict will benefit the ruling faction as it can now claim more political and legislative legitimacy and already has the party symbol (allotted by the Election Commission). He said the "bow and arrow symbol" will give the Shinde-led Sena a "massive upper hand" over the rival Thackeray faction in elections and in people's perception.

"The strength of any political party is its symbol and not having its bow and arrow symbol could hurt the Thackeray faction," Kumar contended.

In his 105-minute long reading of the key points of the ruling, Narwekar also rejected Uddhav Thackeray faction’s petition to disqualify 16 Shiv Sena MLAs, including Shinde.

In his order on disqualification petitions filed by Shinde-led Sena and the rival faction led by Uddhav Thackeray against each other's MLAs, Narwekar said Sunil Prabhu of the Sena (UBT) ceased to be the whip from June 21, 2022, and Bharat Gogawale of the Shinde group became the authorised whip.

“All the petitions seeking disqualification of MLAs are rejected. No MLA is being disqualified,” Narwekar

observed.