IMD: Should utilise MeT’s improved forecasts to save lives and property

New Delhi: India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Tuesday said the agency’s heavy rainfall forecasts have improved by 30 to 40 per cent over the past five years and should be utilised to minimise loss of lives and property during extreme precipitation events.

His remarks came amid claims by the Kerala government about the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) failure to predict extreme rainfall, which triggered a series of landslides in the Wayanad district on July 30, leading to the death of 226 people.

“There has been a 30 to 40 per cent improvement in India Meteorological Department’s heavy rainfall prediction accuracy over the last five years, and it could further improve by 10 to 15 per cent in the next five to seven years with the augmentation of the observation network and numerical modelling systems,” Mohapatra said in a video message played at the launch of a report by IPE Global and Esri India here.

At present, the weather agency predicts rainfall at the meteorological subdivision and district levels with an accuracy of 80 to 90 per cent 24 hours ahead and 60 per cent with a lead time of five days, he said.

Scientists attributed the Wayanad landslides to a deadly mix of forest cover loss, mining in the ecologically fragile terrain and a prolonged spell of rain followed by an extreme precipitation event. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarai Vijayan last week said the IMD had only issued an ‘orange’ alert in Wayanad ahead of the landslides. However, the district received more than 572 millimetres of rainfall, which was extremely higher than what was predicted by the IMD.

Mohapatra said there has been immense progress in managing adverse weather-related disasters in India during the monsoon due to improvements in early warning systems and the delivery of weather and climate-related information to different stakeholders, including the general public and disaster managers.