Frozen India, China ties on a drift into fourth year despite several round of diplomatic, military talks

NEW DELHI: With Beijing remaining intransigent on the withdrawal of additional troops deployed by the PLA since the deadly border clash in 2020 in eastern Ladakh, India’s bilateral ties with China remained frozen in 2023 with no forward movement on the horizon despite several rounds of diplomatic and military talks.

The relationship has remained frozen since May 2020 when the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) amassed troops in eastern Ladakh that led to a deadly clash between the two militaries at the Galwan Valley in June 2020, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese military personnel.

In the words of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, the Chinese literally brought tens of thousands of soldiers in full military preparation at the border in Ladakh in violation of all bilateral agreements.

The ties between the two countries after the two high-profile informal summits between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping remain frozen and India has made it clear that peace and tranquillity at the border is the sine qua non for the overall development of bilateral ties.

“There has been no significant de-escalation or de-induction of additional troops deployed by both sides since mid-2020, even during winter months of four consecutive years,” former Indian Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha said, commenting on the present state of Sino-India ties.

Amid the prevailing tensions, the two countries held 20 rounds of Corps Commanders level talks besides the diplomatic channel called Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) and completed disengagement from five areas.

Talks, however, are deadlocked over disengagement in the Depsang and Demchok areas as the Chinese argue that they are legacy issues that happened well before May 2020.

While India has maintained that there cannot be restoration of normalcy in its relations with China as long as the state of the borders remains abnormal, China continues to press India to delink the border issue and bilateral relations and work for normalcy.

Kantha said the dominant view in China is now increasingly looking at India through the lens of its strategic rivalry with the US and believes that India has been co-opted in the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, which, they believe, is meant to contain China and slow down its rise.

The absence of President Xi at the G20 summit in New Delhi and the fact that the post of the Chinese Ambassador in New Delhi has been lying vacant for the last 14 months convey their own signals, Kantha said.

Also, post-coronavirus pandemic, China is turning more inward and less sure of itself.

However, Ladakh tensions have not dented bilateral trade as China’s trade with India continues to boom, crossing a record USD 124.26 billion in the 11 months of this year.

China’s exports to India totalled USD 124.26 billion while India’s exports to China stood at USD 16.99 billion so far, according to the Jan-Nov, 2023 data released by China’s customs. Ironically amid the continued chill in the bilateral relations, China’s trade deficit with India in the 11 months already crossed USD 90.28 billion, historically the highest and is expected to touch USD 100 billion.