Fear of cross-voting casts shadow over UP Vidhan Parishad polls

In the aftermath of the strategic manoeuvres witnessed during the February 27 Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured unexpected support from seven Samajwadi Party (SP) lawmakers, along with one abstention, concerns over potential cross-voting have intensified as the March 21 Vidhan Parishad elections loom closer.

With the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for April-May 2024, the upcoming political battleground of the Vidhan Parishad elections is poised to serve as a litmus test for Opposition unity in the state.

The absence of a mandatory ‘show’ of votes by members of the legislative assembly in the Vidhan Parishad polls presents a potential loophole for cross-voting, a tactic openly acknowledged by politicians from both the BJP and SP camps. Speculations are rife that disgruntled SP members may further bolster BJP’s electoral prospects, potentially triggering more defections from the Opposition ranks.

The current arithmetic in the 403-member UP assembly, with three lawmakers incarcerated and unable to cast their votes, translates to an effective voting strength of 396, necessitating approximately 29 first preference votes per candidate for victory.

Of the 13 members of the Legislative Council whose terms conclude in May, the BJP currently holds a majority.

Bolstered by the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bloc, which enjoys the backing of independent MLAs and rebel SP lawmakers, the effective voting strength is poised to surge to 296. However, challenges persist within the NDA bloc, with some members facing legal entanglements and the looming threat of defections.

Undeterred by these challenges, the BJP remains confident following its recent successes and is ready to secure additional support from within the Opposition ranks, signalling its readiness to contest the elections vigorously.

Meanwhile, the Opposition bloc, led by the Samajwadi Party and Congress, grapples with internal discord and numerical inferiority, possessing only 101 effective votes at its disposal. This stark numerical disadvantage significantly favours the BJP’s bid to secure a majority in the Vidhan Parishad.

As the filing of nominations commences on March 4 and polling day approaches on March 21, the political landscape of Uttar Pradesh braces for further intrigue and manoeuvring.