BJP’s win in Thrissur, rise in vote share in other seats mark political shift: Analysts

Thiruvananthapuram: The BJP’s sterling performance in Kerala, winning from Thrissur and increasing its vote share in many constituencies in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, clearly indicates a shift in the political landscape of the southern state, say noted political analysts.

Besides actor-politician Suresh Gopi winning from Thrissur, the BJP-led NDA saw its vote share rise from over 15 per cent in 2019 to nearly 20 per cent now.

Analysts indicate that Kerala’s political landscape is evolving from a traditionally bipolar contest dominated by Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led LDF to a tripolar scenario.

This shift, which has been gradually happening since the 2011 Assembly elections, is now becoming more evident.

The 2024 Parliamentary elections in Kerala confirm this shift, as NDA made major inroads into the electorate in Kerala, garnering nearly 20 per cent vote share in many constituencies they contested in, they said. According to them, constituencies like Thrissur, which NDA won, and the increased vote share in constituencies like Attingal and Alappuzha provided a major boost for BJP, confirming that the ‘subaltern Hindutva’ strategy, successfully implemented in states like Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh, has also been effective in Kerala.

In Thrissur, the BJP won with 37.8 per cent of the total votes. In Thiruvananthapuram, the BJP finished second, securing 35.52 per cent of the votes.

In Attingal, a stronghold of the Left, the BJP candidate received 31.64 per cent of the votes, just 1.65 per cent behind the winning UDF candidate.

In Alappuzha, another stronghold of CPI(M) and Congress, the BJP candidate garnered 28.3 per cent of the votes. Analysts say there has been a shift in the preferences of minority Christians, traditional Congress supporters, and OBCs, who were once the committed vote-bank of the Left in Kerala, as they no longer consider the BJP a necessary evil.

“We have been seeing it since the 2011 Assembly elections. The Left had lost about 20 per cent of its OBC vote share, and they compensated for it by earning minority votes. In local body elections, we have widely seen tripolar contests,” Sajad Ibrahim, a leading psephologist at the Kerala University, told news agency. The shift of minority Christian votes in constituencies like Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram was very evident. “The Christian community in Kerala has a majority of upper caste Christians. It is easier for them to align with the BJP as Hindu elements are now incorporated into Christian rituals. They are also practical when it comes to politics,” said Dr G Gopakumar, former VC of Central University.