BJP eyes to rewrite a 38-year-old history, Congress looks to wrest power

With the Election Commission announcing the schedule for Assembly polls in Karnataka, it remains to be seen whether the ruling BJP will buck a four-decade old trend to script history or if the Congress upstages its saffron rival to up its stakes as a challenger ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls.

No political party has won a successive mandate in the state since 1985 and the BJP is eager to rewrite this bit of history and retain its southern citadel.

The Congress is keen to wrest power to give the party a much-needed elbow room to position itself as the main opposition player in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Also what needs to be watched out for is, whether former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), will emerge as a “Kingmaker” by holding the key to government formation, in the event of a hung verdict, as it has done in the past.

The Congress and JD(S) have announced their first list of candidates for 124 and 93 seats, respectively.

Like the last two decades, Karnataka will face a three cornered contest in the May 10 elections, with a direct fight between the Congress, BJP and JD(S) on the cards in most segments. While Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is also making efforts to make some inroads, other smaller ones like mining baron Janardhana Reddy’s Kalyana Rajya Pragathi Paksha (KRPP), the Left, BSP, SDPI (the political wing of banned PFI) and Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) will be contesting in a select few constituencies.

Political observers feel anti-incumbency seems to be a key factor in Karnataka polls, as voters have not given any party a successive mandate. It last happened in 1985, when the Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata Party came back to power.

While Congress’ vote base is spread evenly across the state, the BJP’s is pronounced in the north and central regions due to the concentration of Veerashaiva-Lingayat community in the belt, which forms its major vote bank. JD(S) dominates the Vokkaliga bastion of Old Mysuru (southern Karnataka) region.

Of Karnataka’s population, Lingayats constitute about 17 per cent, Vokkaligas 15 per cent, OBCs 35 per cent, SC/STs 18 per cent, Muslims about 12.92 per cent and Brahmins about three per cent.

The BJP has set a target of winning at least 150 seats to ensure absolute majority. It wants to avoid a 2018-like situation, when it had initially lost out on forming government despite emerging as the single largest party, and had to depend on defections of Congress and JD(S) MLAs to establish its administration later.

It is making all out efforts to make inroads into the Old Mysuru region, where the party is traditionally weak. The region has 89 seats (including 28 in Bengaluru), and according to leaders, the party fell short of majority (110 in 2008 and 104 in 2018) due to its inability to win as many seats from this region.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s repeated visits and those of Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President Nadda to the poll-bound State has no doubt given the party a leg-up in campaigning, but it is up against a combative Congress which has sought to make corruption a central theme of the political narrative.