Bihar Betrayal: Nitish Kumar’s switch leaves INDIA bloc in a bind as Lok Sabha polls loom
New Delhi: The latest stunning move of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to rejoin the BJP-led NDA grouping, just 18 months after walking out of it, has not only altered the political landscape in Bihar but also sent disturbing signals in the national politics.
It was Nitish Kumar who was the architect of forging Opposition unity and bringing them together in the INDIA bloc. His sudden move has certainly dealt a body blow to INDIA grouping as it would not be easy for it to overcome this situation at a time when 2024 Lok Sabha elections are only three months away.
Also, the desire and keenness of all the remaining 27 constituents in the grand opposition alliance to stick together will be put to test. Already, Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her Punjab counterpart Bhagwant Mann of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have declared their decision to go alone on all Lok Sabha seats in their respective states. BSP supremo Mayawati has also refused to join hands with other opposition parties in UP and declared that her party will go solo in parliamentary elections.
Playing the role of big brother in INDIA grouping, Congress has often been accused by regional parties of high-handedness and failing to rely upon a non-Congress political leader. The desertion by Nitish Kumar will most likely bring up the question of trust and reliability. Congress knows that after winning just 44 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 and 52 in 2019 elections, the party will surely need the support of regional parties to take on the ruling BJP. Clearly, the image of INDIA has taken a severe beating. For Nitish Kumar, his alliance with BJP means that he remains confined to his state and has given up on his dream of posing a challenge for the top post in Delhi. At this juncture, his existence and survival in the politics of Bihar remain of utmost concern and interest to him. Bihar Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in 2025 but Nitish Kumar will have to deliver an impressive tally of Lok Sabha seats in April-May general elections.
Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will remain a lone ranger in Bihar though at times his son and former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav has shown signs that he is learning the ropes of the intricate and complex ways of politics though the time is very short for him.
For the ruling BJP, riding on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, such developments are music to its ears as it braces for securing a third successive tenure in office at the Centre. The Lotus party knows that the question of “who in place of Modi’’ will weigh heavily in the minds of electors in the coming elections as those looking for a non-BJP political leader will face a dilemma.
The BJP was worried over the possibility of entering into one-on-one electoral contests with a combined opposition candidate, it can now breathe easy as triangular fight in key states looks a distinct possibility. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had secured 37.3 per cent vote share across the country while the non-BJP vote share of the opposition was nearly 63 per cent. A divided opposition will make things easy for the BJP in the coming general elections and make the party’s footprint in the northern states a formidable one. However, in several states, other electoral equations and chemistry apart from arithmetic will also play a crucial role.
