Behind Bihar's numbers: RJD's surge, JD(U)'s setback
While the NDA triumphed in Bihar, securing 31 out of 40 seats, its overall vote share saw a significant decline, accompanied by narrower victory margins for its candidates. Notably, the JD(U) outperformed the BJP in terms of retaining seats, losing only four out of 16 seats compared to the BJP's five out of 17. This positions the JD(U) as a pivotal player within the NDA.
In contrast, despite a robust campaign led by former deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav, the RJD managed to increase its vote share by over 6% from the 2019 elections, despite winning only three seats. This shift in voter sentiment could foreshadow developments in the 2025 Assembly polls, testing the JD(U)'s standing within the NDA against its grassroots popularity.
The diminishing victory margins, notably in comparison to the 2019 results, reflect a decline in the vote shares of key parties. While the BJP and JD(U) witnessed declines of 3.5% and 3.75%, respectively, the LJP, despite contesting fewer seats, also experienced a decrease in vote share. Conversely, the RJD emerged as the frontrunner in terms of vote share, climbing from zero to four seats and increasing its share to 22.14%.
Senior BJP figures attribute the disparity in strike rates between the BJP and JD(U) to candidate selection issues rather than a reflection of declining popularity. They acknowledge that the Opposition's strategic nomination of non-Yadav OBC candidates disrupted their electoral calculations.
Conversely, JD(U) leaders attribute their success to the enduring popularity of Nitish Kumar's governance schemes targeting women and the impoverished. They emphasize Nitish Kumar's indispensable role within the NDA and caution against premature assessments of future political dynamics.
The 2020 Assembly elections saw a setback for the JD(U), with a decline in seats compared to the 2015 elections. This setback was attributed to internal challenges within the NDA, particularly the LJP's independent contesting against JD(U) candidates.
