Maya waits for the right time
12 Oct 2012 11:10 PM GMT
Mayawati’s declaration in her press conference just after the meeting of the National Executive of Bahujan Samaj Party [BSP] should be taken as a warning signal for the ruling combine at the centre that it is going to lose the support of yet another supporter. Till now United Progressive Alliance [UPA] has lost support of Trinamool Congress [TMC] led by Mamata Banerjee and Jharkhand Vikas Party led by Babu Lal Marandi. Mayawati had announced that she will declare her decision whether to continue supporting the UPA after a rally in Lucknow on the occasion of the 6th death anniversary of her mentor Kanshi Ram. She has yet not announced that she was withdrawing support from the Manmohan Singh government, but in her press conference she had not a single word of praise for this government. She explained the reasons why she was supporting UPA and made it clear that the Central government has failed on all fronts. The government failed to contain prices. Rather it is helping prices rise further. She was critical of the government to serve the interests of SCs, STs, OBCs, minorities and poor among the upper castes. It should be noted that these are the social bases of Mayawati’s BSP. If a government is working against or not doing anything in favour of these social bases of the party, why should BSP continue its support to such a government?
But the question that arises is why Mayawati did not announce the withdrawal? The obvious answer is she wants to ensure that her withdrawal should be timed in such a manner that the government does not survive after it. It is worth mentioning that on the day of Sankalp Rally on 9 October, a Supreme Court bench allowed the Central Bureau of Investigation [CBI] to continue its investigation against her in a disproportionate case filed against her nine years ago. The CBI has moved a review petition against the judgment of the Supreme Court, which had quashed the DA case against her on 7 July this year itself. The Supreme Court bench has issued notice to Mayawati as well on the review petition of CBI. Indian politics has entered into an era, where the court cases and investigations are playing important role in deciding the contour of politics. It seems that the timing of the court notice to Mayawati and the free hand given by the Supreme Court to CBI for continuing investigation against the BSP president has poured water on the enthusiasm of Mayawati in withdrawing support to UPA government.
This kind of pressure tactics does not pay any party in the long or medium term. It only strengthens the resolve to teach a lesson at the opportune time. That is the reason, despite spewing venom against the Union government, Mayawati has yet not announced the withdrawal of support to the government, though she must have made up her mind to do so. She is just waiting for the right moment to strike the government.
The union government is surviving only because of the support of two parties of Uttar Pradesh, who together have 43 MPs in Lok Sabha. In the political circles common talks doing the rounds are that these two parties are doing this only under the intense pressure of CBI investigations and legal process. Mulayam Singh has made it clear that, though he opposes the policies and programmes of the government, but Samajwadi Party [SP] will continue to support the UPA-II government to keep communal forces out of power. Mayawati, in her press conference made it clear that she was supporting UPA to keep communal forces out of power, but she has not given any assurance like Mulayam Singh that she will continue to do so.
If we look at the political scenario of Uttar Pradesh, we find that an early Lok Sabha poll is in favour of SP. It has won the last Assembly Elections with thumping majority and the goodwill of people of UP is still in its favour. But with the passage of time, the forces of anti- incumbency will start eroding its goodwill. Mulayam Singh must be aware of this electoral fact, but he cannot withdraw its support to government, if it does not fall after it. So he has to wait for the decision of Mayawati and Karunanidhi regarding their support to UPA.
That is another reason for Mayawati for not withdrawing support immediately, because delay in elections may improve its chances to bag more Lok Sabha seats. She is aware that any association with Congress may be harmful in elections, because the dynasty heading the Congress is facing an unprecedented crisis after the corruption charges against Robert Vadra, the son in law of Sonia Gandhi. During last Lok Sabha elections, the fight was triangular, in which Congress, SP and BSP faired almost equally, but during next elections, the fight may turn out to be straight between SP and BSP, because Congress’s prospect is getting damaged with the passage of time. That is why Mayawati has to asses the politics of Mulayam Singh, who seems to be closer to Congress than Mayawati.
What will be the right time for announcing the decision of Mayawati? She says she would announce it soon, but anyone who knows the BSP leader closely would say that right time for her will be the time, when the Congress will be in a precarious situation.
It should be mentioned that Vajpayee government fell by one vote in 1999 only because of the support withdrawn by Mayawati. She had pledged her support to the government during Lok Sabha speech, but at the time of voting, she asked her MPs, to vote against the government and the government fell just by one vote.
That is why Congress or UPA now cannot count on the support of Mayawati. Whether, she announces it or not, she would not waste even a minute to push the government down, if she gets an opportunity. [IPA]
But the question that arises is why Mayawati did not announce the withdrawal? The obvious answer is she wants to ensure that her withdrawal should be timed in such a manner that the government does not survive after it. It is worth mentioning that on the day of Sankalp Rally on 9 October, a Supreme Court bench allowed the Central Bureau of Investigation [CBI] to continue its investigation against her in a disproportionate case filed against her nine years ago. The CBI has moved a review petition against the judgment of the Supreme Court, which had quashed the DA case against her on 7 July this year itself. The Supreme Court bench has issued notice to Mayawati as well on the review petition of CBI. Indian politics has entered into an era, where the court cases and investigations are playing important role in deciding the contour of politics. It seems that the timing of the court notice to Mayawati and the free hand given by the Supreme Court to CBI for continuing investigation against the BSP president has poured water on the enthusiasm of Mayawati in withdrawing support to UPA government.
This kind of pressure tactics does not pay any party in the long or medium term. It only strengthens the resolve to teach a lesson at the opportune time. That is the reason, despite spewing venom against the Union government, Mayawati has yet not announced the withdrawal of support to the government, though she must have made up her mind to do so. She is just waiting for the right moment to strike the government.
The union government is surviving only because of the support of two parties of Uttar Pradesh, who together have 43 MPs in Lok Sabha. In the political circles common talks doing the rounds are that these two parties are doing this only under the intense pressure of CBI investigations and legal process. Mulayam Singh has made it clear that, though he opposes the policies and programmes of the government, but Samajwadi Party [SP] will continue to support the UPA-II government to keep communal forces out of power. Mayawati, in her press conference made it clear that she was supporting UPA to keep communal forces out of power, but she has not given any assurance like Mulayam Singh that she will continue to do so.
If we look at the political scenario of Uttar Pradesh, we find that an early Lok Sabha poll is in favour of SP. It has won the last Assembly Elections with thumping majority and the goodwill of people of UP is still in its favour. But with the passage of time, the forces of anti- incumbency will start eroding its goodwill. Mulayam Singh must be aware of this electoral fact, but he cannot withdraw its support to government, if it does not fall after it. So he has to wait for the decision of Mayawati and Karunanidhi regarding their support to UPA.
That is another reason for Mayawati for not withdrawing support immediately, because delay in elections may improve its chances to bag more Lok Sabha seats. She is aware that any association with Congress may be harmful in elections, because the dynasty heading the Congress is facing an unprecedented crisis after the corruption charges against Robert Vadra, the son in law of Sonia Gandhi. During last Lok Sabha elections, the fight was triangular, in which Congress, SP and BSP faired almost equally, but during next elections, the fight may turn out to be straight between SP and BSP, because Congress’s prospect is getting damaged with the passage of time. That is why Mayawati has to asses the politics of Mulayam Singh, who seems to be closer to Congress than Mayawati.
What will be the right time for announcing the decision of Mayawati? She says she would announce it soon, but anyone who knows the BSP leader closely would say that right time for her will be the time, when the Congress will be in a precarious situation.
It should be mentioned that Vajpayee government fell by one vote in 1999 only because of the support withdrawn by Mayawati. She had pledged her support to the government during Lok Sabha speech, but at the time of voting, she asked her MPs, to vote against the government and the government fell just by one vote.
That is why Congress or UPA now cannot count on the support of Mayawati. Whether, she announces it or not, she would not waste even a minute to push the government down, if she gets an opportunity. [IPA]
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