Mandate predicted by TV polls will lead to unstable legislature
17 Oct 2013 7:07 AM IST
If the opinion polls conducted by various agencies are any indicator, the ensuing general elections to Delhi assembly may, for the first time throw a hung house. The Aam Aadmi Party, the Bahujan Samaja Party, independents and others put together, seem to be well set to corner at least a dozen odd seats. And if they succeed, then neither the Congress nor the BJP would, on its own, be in position to reach the magic figure of 36 – the number required to form the government.
If the assembly is hung, the largest party in the house will have no option but to look for support from other parties to be able to stake claim to form the government. Since the Congress and the BJP cannot, for obvious reasons, seek the support of or extend support to one another, it is the AAP which may play a crucial role in government formation.
However, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is already on record saying that his party, in the event of hung house, will support neither the Congress nor the BJP and would prefer either to sit in the Opposition or to go in for a fresh election. But AAP can afford to sit in the opposition only if some kind of government comes into existence without its support. If party sticks to its proclaimed stand and a situation gets created whereby fresh elections seem imminent, the gamble can boomerang also and hits its own ranks.
Is there any guarantee that AAP MLAs, belonging to the same socio-political background as others, on being elected, will not fall prey to temptation and allurements? They have certainly not descended from a different planet. One cannot, therefore, rule out a situation where the party may split and those opposed to fresh election form a group, walk out of AAP and extend support the party nearing to majority thereby enabling it to reach the magic figure of 36.
If the government formation suffers a roadblock, the situation can lead to any of the following possibilities:-
a. BJP forms the government with AAP extending outside support on certain terms and conditions;
b. Congress forms the government with AAP extending outside support on certain terms and conditions;
c. AAP forms the government with the outside support of Congress or BJP;
d. AAP splits. The splinter group joins the Congress or the BJP (depending upon who has the largest number) thereby helping them get to the majority mark.
e. With no party in a position to form the government, the Lieutenant Governor informs the president about the failure of constitutional machinery in the National Capital Territory.
The president, on receipt of a report from the Lt. Governor and on being satisfied that a situation has arisen wherein the administration of the National Capital Territory cannot be carried out in accordance with the provision of the constitution, suspends the operation of article 239A. This would mean that the NCT would be administered directly by the President (central government) acting through the Lt. Governor.
(The author is a former secretary, Lok Sabha)
If the assembly is hung, the largest party in the house will have no option but to look for support from other parties to be able to stake claim to form the government. Since the Congress and the BJP cannot, for obvious reasons, seek the support of or extend support to one another, it is the AAP which may play a crucial role in government formation.
However, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is already on record saying that his party, in the event of hung house, will support neither the Congress nor the BJP and would prefer either to sit in the Opposition or to go in for a fresh election. But AAP can afford to sit in the opposition only if some kind of government comes into existence without its support. If party sticks to its proclaimed stand and a situation gets created whereby fresh elections seem imminent, the gamble can boomerang also and hits its own ranks.
Is there any guarantee that AAP MLAs, belonging to the same socio-political background as others, on being elected, will not fall prey to temptation and allurements? They have certainly not descended from a different planet. One cannot, therefore, rule out a situation where the party may split and those opposed to fresh election form a group, walk out of AAP and extend support the party nearing to majority thereby enabling it to reach the magic figure of 36.
If the government formation suffers a roadblock, the situation can lead to any of the following possibilities:-
a. BJP forms the government with AAP extending outside support on certain terms and conditions;
b. Congress forms the government with AAP extending outside support on certain terms and conditions;
c. AAP forms the government with the outside support of Congress or BJP;
d. AAP splits. The splinter group joins the Congress or the BJP (depending upon who has the largest number) thereby helping them get to the majority mark.
e. With no party in a position to form the government, the Lieutenant Governor informs the president about the failure of constitutional machinery in the National Capital Territory.
The president, on receipt of a report from the Lt. Governor and on being satisfied that a situation has arisen wherein the administration of the National Capital Territory cannot be carried out in accordance with the provision of the constitution, suspends the operation of article 239A. This would mean that the NCT would be administered directly by the President (central government) acting through the Lt. Governor.
(The author is a former secretary, Lok Sabha)
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