Little-known Axis gets it right, others fall flat

As has been the case many a time in the past, the predictions of only one pollster – Axis exit poll proved right, while the other surveys that forecast victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the crucial Bihar Assembly elections were proven wrong.

The lesser known Axis exit poll, which had predicted 169-183 seats for the grand alliance and 58-70 for the NDA, was not telecast by any news channel. 

Today’s Chanakya – which gave the maximum 155 seats to the BJP and its allies and 83 to the Mahagathbandhan – apologised for its “mistake”. “We sincerely apologise (to) all our friends and well-wishers for not (being) able to predict Bihar. Congratulations to the winning alliance,” it said in a tweet. The winning number in the 243-seat Assembly was 122 seats.

According to a Hansa exit poll, the BJP-led NDA was poised to win 120-130 seats, while the grand alliance was poised to win 105-115 seats. Dainik Jagran survey gave 130 seats to the BJP combine and 97 to the JD(U) and its allies.

India Today-Cicero predicted 120 and 117 seats to the BJP and Grand Alliance respectively. On the other hand, former Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and psephologist Yogendra Yadav and a few other poll survey agencies forecast a clear majority for the grand alliance.

“I think the grand alliance is headed for a clear, perhaps even comfortable majority. If my reading is correct, its tally could go well beyond the highest forecast of 130 seats,” Yadav wrote on his Facebook wall.

Similarly, C-Voter (111 seats for BJP plus, 122 seats for JD-U plus), News Nation (117 BJP+, 122 JD-U+) and the NewsX/CNX (95 BJP+, 135 JD-U+) predicted a majority for the grand alliance. Predicting similar trends, the Nielsen predicted 130 seats for the grand alliance and allies and 108 for the BJP.