Is the ‘American Dream’ on life support for Indians?

Indrajit Basak (name changed), now a software honcho in Los Angeles, is a product of the ‘big American dream’. In the late 90s, Basak, who hails from a modest middle-class Bengali family in a small suburban town in West Bengal, went to the USA for an onsite assignment. Primarily working in coding, he eventually settled there. For decades, the American dream has drawn countless Indian techies to the US. What began as outsourced work soon became the go-to mantra: secure an H-1B visa, work for global corporations, and build a prosperous life abroad. But that ‘big American dream’ now seems to be on its deathbed, with the Donald Trump administration tightening immigration rules. In September, the US President imposed a one-time $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas, majorly affecting Indians hoping to build a temporary career and life on foreign shores. Now, the latest social media vetting policy has triggered widespread disruptions in H-1B visa applications for those seeking temporary employment in the US. Many appointments have been postponed to next year, triggering further panic among applicants, most of whom are students. Even Basak’s brother, an IIT graduate, has seen his H-1B visa interview pushed back to April 2026.

H-1B visas are lifelines for US tech companies that rely heavily on talent from India and China. But after the Trump administration’s crackdown on the programme, which accounts for over 70% of the 85,000 visas issued annually, active student enrolment from India dropped 28% year-on-year till March 2025, reflecting the growing challenges. Adding to the already-complication situation, massive layoffs across the US tech sector have put immense pressure on Indian H-1B professionals, forcing them to find new jobs within a strict 60-day window. This has led to stress, career uncertainty, and, in many cases, the possibility of returning to the country. The situation turned more serious when the US President, while speaking at the AI Summit in Washington in mid-2025, criticised Google, Microsoft, and Apple for hiring workers from India and outsourcing manufacturing to China.

Saurabh Arora, Founder & CEO, University Living, admitted that the recent US tech layoffs have added extra pressure for Indian professionals on H-1B visas. “A layoff today triggers tighter compliance checks and the standard 60-day window to secure a new sponsor, which makes job transitions more time sensitive. Employers are also more cautious about visa dependent hiring, especially with filing costs for new H-1B petitions increasing, so the recovery process is slower than it used to be. These shifts are prompting Indian professionals to rethink how they plan their global careers. The earlier pattern of building experience in India and then moving to the U.S. for long term stability is no longer guaranteed,” he said.

Aritra Ghosal, CEO and Founder of OneStep Global, said that whenever visa rules in the US tightens, the first response among Indian workers is “caution”. “The process becomes more demanding, with additional paperwork, higher costs, and more frequent scrutiny of job roles and salary bands. This affects career planning in practical ways: people delay international travel, avoid job changes, and invest more time and resources into compliance. Employers also take a more conservative approach to sponsorship, which further narrows opportunities,” he said. Ghosal also informed that shift is also visible in broader mobility trends. “With student visa issuance to Indian nationals dropping by around 44 % in early 2025 compared to the previous year, it is becoming increasingly clear that the US is losing ground in the competition for global talent,” he said.

But, mind you, this climate of uncertainty, scrutiny and disruption is also causing the USA a lot of losses. More than 330,000 Indian students were enrolled in US universities in 2024, contributing an estimated $9 billion annually to the American economy. This year, US universities are already reporting a 35 % drop in applications from abroad. A 10 % decline in new student enrolments alone could cost nearly $1 billion in revenue.

As a result of the Trump administration crackdown, many Indians are now reconsidering their plans to study or work in the USA and are exploring alternatives such as Canada, Europe or the Middle East. At the same time, a growing number of Indian professionals in the US are returning home, where global capability centres and product teams are rapidly expanding. Now, stricter visa rules under the Trump administration are creating a more demanding environment for Indian workers in the US, admitted Arora. According to him, in FY 2024, Indians received 283,397 H-1B approvals, around 71% of all petitions, which means any policy tightening affects them more than any other group. The proposed 100,000 dollar fee for new H-1B applications is likely to make employers more selective about sponsorship, he said.

This year, the US administration has revoked 85,000 visas across multiple categories as part of an intensified effort to protect American communities and enforce public-safety standards. Ghosal believes over the long term, India will experience a mixed impact due to the stringent visa rules and layoffs in the USA. “Some professionals will return with strong global experience and re-enter the Indian market, strengthening domestic talent pools. Others may choose alternate destinations or remote-first roles that reduce dependence on a single geography. The broader outcome will depend on how effectively Indian companies absorb returning talent and create opportunities aligned with their skills,” he said.