Indo-Afghan talks on the horizon

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is expected to visit India later this month at the invitation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The prime minister, who has been focused on improving relations with India’s neighbouring countries, is giving special importance to this visit. The Prime Minister’s Office is working on a detailed programme, for further assistance to Afghanistan, with the objective of pepping up the Afghan economy. This will be Ghani’s first visit to India after taking over as the President of the battle scarred Afghanistan late last year. Modi had invited Ghani at the sidelines of the last SAARC meeting in Kathmandu. This will be for the first time that the Indian PM will be having detailed talks with the new Afghan President on India- Afghanistan relations.

Indian officials were earlier apprehensive that Ghani would not be as pro-India as Hamid Karzai was. New Delhi has, however, revised its views after preliminary discussions at the SAARC meeting. 

In Kathmandu Ghani gave firm indications that he appreciated India’s position on cross border terrorism and that Afghanistan would be by India’s side in taking collective steps to restore peace and tranquility in the South Asian region. He also gave hints that there should not be any misgivings about his alleged pro-Pakistan bias.  He candidly said that for Afghanistan, good and friendly relations with both Pakistan and India are important and he is only working towards that goal. Indian officials will wait for the Delhi meeting in late April to have a final view on where Ghani stands.

Earlier in March this year, Indian foreign secretary S. Jaishankar had talks with the new Afghan President in Kabul. These talks focused on internal security, Afghanistan’s development needs and status of talks with the Afghan Taliban. Post the talks the Afghan President was very optimistic about the future of bilateral relations and he termed India as a natural partner of choice.

India would certainly be keeping a close eye on the strategy that the Afghan regime takes in dealing with the Afghan Taliban. India has been training the Afghan military and police personnel as part of its efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. India has also handed over three helicopters to the Afghan Government. India will consider other requests for military aid from Afghanistan but India expects that it will be appraised of the moves taken by the Afghan Government during the crucial talks with the Taliban.

As of now, the new Afghan Government has established preliminary contacts with the Afghan Taliban but the formal talks are yet to begin. India has played a crucial role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan since the fall of the earlier Taliban regime and the total aid that India has provided would be around US$ 2 billion. It would be safe to say that India has played a significant role in Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction. The Indian embassy in Kabul is in touch with the Afghan Government for assessing the needs for speedy reconstruction along with the requirements of more weapons for Afghan soldiers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is interested in announcing a special economic package for Afghanistan and he is eager to impress the new Afghanistan president with his new neighbourhood friendly policy.

Indian officials feel that 2015 will be a delicate and testing year for the new Afghanistan Government and Ghani has to tread a cautious path to take along USA, India and Pakistan for the ride. A decade of democracy has significantly opened up Afghan society and India’s cooperation has helped develop sustainable linkages cutting across ethnic lines. For this Afghanistan has to vigorously pursue dialogue with neighbours including Pakistan. There is an apprehension that in 2016, due to the Presidential elections looming large, the US may not play an active role and let the Afghan Government fend for itself. 

This is why, India wants definite move on the part of the Afghan Government in 2015, so that the situation still remains under control in 2016 despite a US withdrawal from most of Afghanistan. For India, the Afghan Government’s policy post US withdrawal is crucial as India has invested a lot of political goodwill and economic resources for the reconstruction of Afghan economy. The erstwhile president Hamid Karzai was aware of this and he kept India informed of his moves relating to Taliban and related talks with the US administration. India has to establish the same comfort level with the new Afghan president Ghani in the course of discussions in Delhi.

There are reports that Afghan Government is also finding it difficult to have meaningful talks with Taliban as the group is not a monolithic entity any longer. Some of the factions are hostile to the Pakistan establishment. Consequently Pakistan does not want the Afghan Government to have constructive talks with these anti-Pakistani elements. With the US administration increasingly losing interest in Afghan affairs, it is up to the Afghan president to make use of his negotiating and diplomatic skills for arriving at an understanding that will be acceptable to both India and Pakistan.