India to look East for energy
19 Nov 2012 10:37 PM GMT
In the long run, Myanmar remains India’s best bet as a major supplier of energy for decades to come. This is the opinion of some experts, who feel the future of projected pipelines, such as TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) may be insecure in view of the situation prevailing in central Asia.
The 1,700 kilometres long TAPI pipeline is scheduled to supply more than 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Later, Bangladesh also indicated its willingness to join the project. The estimated cost: $7.6 billion. The US had supported the proposal, in its bid to isolate Iran. Observers felt that because of the close technological collaboration that would be involved, Indo-Pak relations were also bound to improve, an additional sweetener in the deal. However, recent political developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan are a cause of major concern to most countries in the region. The US is committed to pull out its troops by 2014 from Afghanistan, although opinions differ as to whether this will mean a total withdrawal. With proTaliban forces remaining a major regional factor, observers do not rule out a civil-war-like situation in Afghanistan again, once the US troops go, as a worst-case scenario. But even at the best of times, the ability of the present Karzai regime to hold its own in the face of increasingly difficult challenges remains open to question.
In the Afghan-Pakistan border areas again, there are large pockets and tracts where local tribes rule the roost, there being hardly any administration worth the name. The long pipeline will be built through some of these areas, in the turbulent Helmand and Kandahar provinces among others, over some very difficult terrains. There will always be an opportunity for local insurgents or Taliban forces to blow up the pipeline and disrupt supply at will. Some days ago, pro-Taliban militants did blow up a pipeline in Pakistan, their sabotage badly affecting the work of the NATO forces. Clearly, gas supply from the TAPI project to India will remain vulnerable to accidents and disruption in the foreseeable future. This belies the optimism that was generated at the time of the formal signing of the TAPI agreement between Turkmenistan ministers and officials of India’s GAIL and Pakistan’s Inter State Gas Services, some months ago. On the other hand, there has virtually been no recent progress on the proposed IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline project either, largely because of US pressure on India to restrict its dependence on Iranian oil. With the US-Israel/Iran standoff expected to continue for some time and even worsen now that President Obama has been re-elected, there seems to be no immediate possibility for India to expect energy inputs from the West/Central Asian region.
Given this dismal outlook on its West, India’s best bet seems to be energy-rich Myanmar on its East. Here, India and Bangladesh lost a good opportunity to secure long-term gas supplies from the rich gas fields off the Rakhine coast of Myanmar some time ago. The ruling regime in Bangladesh was reluctant to allow the proposed MBI (Myanmar-Bangladesh-India) pipeline, a distance of only 900 kilometres, proposed cost of construction around $1/1.5 billion only, to be built through its territory. The reason was primarily political, as anti-Indian parties and forces in Bangladesh opposed the proposal, which both India and Myanmar had supported.
China on the other hand, walked away with major gains, arranging to access gas supplies through a direct pipeline right up to Kunming from the Bay of Bengal, concluding an agreement with Myanmar. Ironically, major Indian public sector companies were partners in constructing the 900 kilometre long pipeline to Kunming, helping China meet its massive energy needs, even while India lost out in its quest for supplies! But then, total Chinese investments in the energy sector and other areas of Myanmar’s economy were around $8 billion, compared to India’s commitments to the tune of $1.5/2 billion.
Now Bangladesh, too, admits its earlier mistake of opposing India unnecessarily, even at the cost of increasing its own energy insecurity in the process. No wonder it wants to join the TAPI project.
India did explore the possibility of building an alternate pipeline from offshore Myanmar gas fields avoiding Bangladesh territory, running a pipeline through the NE states. The distance would have increased to around 1,500 kilometres and construction cost would have gone up to $2.5/3 billion have gone.
Some experts have favoured the idea of reviving and implementing this project, building a pipeline from Myanmar to India via the NE states, as early as possible. Given the currently volatile situation in West/Central Asia, India should not lose out in the race to secure reliable energy input supplies in the East as well.
The other positive factor is the change of heart among political circles in Bangladesh, who now favour the idea of constructing the old MBI (Myanmar-Bangladesh-India) pipeline, which would be quicker to build and more economical as well. [IPA]
The 1,700 kilometres long TAPI pipeline is scheduled to supply more than 30 billion cubic metres of gas annually to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Later, Bangladesh also indicated its willingness to join the project. The estimated cost: $7.6 billion. The US had supported the proposal, in its bid to isolate Iran. Observers felt that because of the close technological collaboration that would be involved, Indo-Pak relations were also bound to improve, an additional sweetener in the deal. However, recent political developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan are a cause of major concern to most countries in the region. The US is committed to pull out its troops by 2014 from Afghanistan, although opinions differ as to whether this will mean a total withdrawal. With proTaliban forces remaining a major regional factor, observers do not rule out a civil-war-like situation in Afghanistan again, once the US troops go, as a worst-case scenario. But even at the best of times, the ability of the present Karzai regime to hold its own in the face of increasingly difficult challenges remains open to question.
In the Afghan-Pakistan border areas again, there are large pockets and tracts where local tribes rule the roost, there being hardly any administration worth the name. The long pipeline will be built through some of these areas, in the turbulent Helmand and Kandahar provinces among others, over some very difficult terrains. There will always be an opportunity for local insurgents or Taliban forces to blow up the pipeline and disrupt supply at will. Some days ago, pro-Taliban militants did blow up a pipeline in Pakistan, their sabotage badly affecting the work of the NATO forces. Clearly, gas supply from the TAPI project to India will remain vulnerable to accidents and disruption in the foreseeable future. This belies the optimism that was generated at the time of the formal signing of the TAPI agreement between Turkmenistan ministers and officials of India’s GAIL and Pakistan’s Inter State Gas Services, some months ago. On the other hand, there has virtually been no recent progress on the proposed IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline project either, largely because of US pressure on India to restrict its dependence on Iranian oil. With the US-Israel/Iran standoff expected to continue for some time and even worsen now that President Obama has been re-elected, there seems to be no immediate possibility for India to expect energy inputs from the West/Central Asian region.
Given this dismal outlook on its West, India’s best bet seems to be energy-rich Myanmar on its East. Here, India and Bangladesh lost a good opportunity to secure long-term gas supplies from the rich gas fields off the Rakhine coast of Myanmar some time ago. The ruling regime in Bangladesh was reluctant to allow the proposed MBI (Myanmar-Bangladesh-India) pipeline, a distance of only 900 kilometres, proposed cost of construction around $1/1.5 billion only, to be built through its territory. The reason was primarily political, as anti-Indian parties and forces in Bangladesh opposed the proposal, which both India and Myanmar had supported.
China on the other hand, walked away with major gains, arranging to access gas supplies through a direct pipeline right up to Kunming from the Bay of Bengal, concluding an agreement with Myanmar. Ironically, major Indian public sector companies were partners in constructing the 900 kilometre long pipeline to Kunming, helping China meet its massive energy needs, even while India lost out in its quest for supplies! But then, total Chinese investments in the energy sector and other areas of Myanmar’s economy were around $8 billion, compared to India’s commitments to the tune of $1.5/2 billion.
Now Bangladesh, too, admits its earlier mistake of opposing India unnecessarily, even at the cost of increasing its own energy insecurity in the process. No wonder it wants to join the TAPI project.
India did explore the possibility of building an alternate pipeline from offshore Myanmar gas fields avoiding Bangladesh territory, running a pipeline through the NE states. The distance would have increased to around 1,500 kilometres and construction cost would have gone up to $2.5/3 billion have gone.
Some experts have favoured the idea of reviving and implementing this project, building a pipeline from Myanmar to India via the NE states, as early as possible. Given the currently volatile situation in West/Central Asia, India should not lose out in the race to secure reliable energy input supplies in the East as well.
The other positive factor is the change of heart among political circles in Bangladesh, who now favour the idea of constructing the old MBI (Myanmar-Bangladesh-India) pipeline, which would be quicker to build and more economical as well. [IPA]
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