Govt cuts monsoon forecast, says no drought
14 Aug 2014 5:03 AM IST
The downgrade from 93 to 87 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), a 7 per cent decline, was done due to shortage of rain during June, which was 43 per cent of the LPA.
‘The latest estimate suggests the 2014 southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87 per cent of the LPA,’ Jitendra Singh, Minister of State for Earth Science told a news conference here after reviewing the second half of the Long Range Forecast for the season. ‘The season rainfall (June to September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 87 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.
‘There is 68 per cent probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient (less than 90 per cent of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96 per cent of LPA) is 24 per cent,’ the Indian Meteorological Department said in a statement.
This indicates that the country is expected to receive ‘deficient’ rainfall, contrary to the prediction it had earlier made about ‘below normal’ monsoon. ‘The figure went down due to shortfall of rain in June, which was 43 per cent. Although the monsoon picked up in July which saw 90 pc of rainfall and then in the first half of August.
‘The latest estimate suggests the 2014 southwest monsoon rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87 per cent of the LPA,’ Jitendra Singh, Minister of State for Earth Science told a news conference here after reviewing the second half of the Long Range Forecast for the season. ‘The season rainfall (June to September) over the country as a whole is likely to be 87 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.
‘There is 68 per cent probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient (less than 90 per cent of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96 per cent of LPA) is 24 per cent,’ the Indian Meteorological Department said in a statement.
This indicates that the country is expected to receive ‘deficient’ rainfall, contrary to the prediction it had earlier made about ‘below normal’ monsoon. ‘The figure went down due to shortfall of rain in June, which was 43 per cent. Although the monsoon picked up in July which saw 90 pc of rainfall and then in the first half of August.
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