El Nino’s likely return to hit crop output
22 Feb 2014 1:13 AM GMT
El Nino, the Spanish word for boy, is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. The worst on record in the late 1990s killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage.
A strong El Nino can wither crops in Australia, Southeast Asia, India and Africa when other parts of the globe such as the U.S. Midwest and Brazil are drenched in rains.
While scientists are still debating the intensity of a potential El Nino, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and the US Climate Prediction Center have warned of increased chances one will strike this year.
Last month, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization said there was an ‘enhanced possibility’ of a weak El Nino by the middle of 2014.
‘The world is bracing for El Nino, which if confirmed, could wreak havoc on supply and cause prices of some commodities to shoot up,’ said Vanessa Tan, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
Any disruption to supply would come as many crops have already been hit by adverse weather, with the northern hemisphere in the grip of a savage winter.
The spectre of El Nino has driven global cocoa prices to 2-1/2 year peaks this month on fears that dry weather in the key growing regions of Africa and Asia would stoke a global deficit. Other agricultural commodities could follow that lead higher if El Nino conditions are confirmed.
BOY
‘Production estimates for several crops which are already under stress will have to be revised downwards,’ said Phillip Futures’ Tan. ‘Wheat in Australia may be affected by El Nino and also sugar in India.’
In India, the world’s No.2 producer of sugar, rice and wheat, a strong El Nino could reduce the monsoon rains that are key to its agriculture, curbing production.
A strong El Nino can wither crops in Australia, Southeast Asia, India and Africa when other parts of the globe such as the U.S. Midwest and Brazil are drenched in rains.
While scientists are still debating the intensity of a potential El Nino, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and the US Climate Prediction Center have warned of increased chances one will strike this year.
Last month, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization said there was an ‘enhanced possibility’ of a weak El Nino by the middle of 2014.
‘The world is bracing for El Nino, which if confirmed, could wreak havoc on supply and cause prices of some commodities to shoot up,’ said Vanessa Tan, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
Any disruption to supply would come as many crops have already been hit by adverse weather, with the northern hemisphere in the grip of a savage winter.
The spectre of El Nino has driven global cocoa prices to 2-1/2 year peaks this month on fears that dry weather in the key growing regions of Africa and Asia would stoke a global deficit. Other agricultural commodities could follow that lead higher if El Nino conditions are confirmed.
BOY
‘Production estimates for several crops which are already under stress will have to be revised downwards,’ said Phillip Futures’ Tan. ‘Wheat in Australia may be affected by El Nino and also sugar in India.’
In India, the world’s No.2 producer of sugar, rice and wheat, a strong El Nino could reduce the monsoon rains that are key to its agriculture, curbing production.
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