Political winds
In the runup to 2024 general elections, every political battle — small and big — has something to indicate and carries more weight than is evident. The results of the byelections held for four assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat across four states have not presented encouraging signs for the BJP. The TMC swept across the Ballygunge state assembly seat and Asansol Lok Sabha seat with significant margins. In Asansol, TMC's gamble of fielding the actor-turned politician, Shatrughan Sinha, paid off. The seat was vacated last year in August when Babul Supriyo resigned from the BJP to return to the fold of the TMC. Sinha defeated BJP's Agnimitra Paul with a huge margin of 3.03 lakh votes. Babul Supriyo, at the same time, bagged 49 per cent votes in the Ballygunge assembly constituency — leaving CPI(M)'s Saira Shah Halim far behind. Interestingly, the BJP was pushed to the backfoot in the Ballygunge seat with a vote percentage of mere 12.8 per cent — ceding the second spot to the Left Front. Essentially, the TMC had before it the task of retaining the seat after the death of Subrata Mukherjee last year. The defeat, once again, must be pinching for the BJP which had, despite making all out efforts, lost the assembly elections to the TMC. The saffron party has been on a relentless drive to set its footprint in the state. But the TMC, riding on its immense popularity within the state, doesn't appear to concede even the slightest opportunity. Mamata Banerjee gracefully accepted the victory as a 'shubho Nababarsho' gift by the people. Similarly, the BJP could not make much mark in Maharashtra's Kolhapur North assembly seat. The party is said to have poured all its energy for the elections. The Maha Vikash Aghadi government has been alleging the BJP for misusing Central Investigation agencies. It has also alleged that the BJP deliberately raised the issue of using loudspeakers in mosques. However, the poll results indicate that no such polarisation could effectively take shape in the constituency. Congress's Jayashri Jadhav defeated the BJP's Satyajit Kadam by 18,901 votes — becoming the first women MLA from the city. Notably, Jayashri has succeeded her late husband Chandrakant Yadav, meaning sympathy votes could also be a contributing factor in her win. But overall, it offers an indicator that the political storm of communalism and polarisation can be withstood. Also, it points towards moderation of the alleged rift among different factions of the government. It would be wrong to jump at any conclusion on the basis of a single byelection but ascertaining the direction of political wind is critically important. Another disappointment was waiting for the BJP in Chhattisgarh's Khairagarh where the Congress continues unabated on its winning streak in byelections. The Congress candidate Yashoda Verma defeated her BJP rival by a margin of around 20,000 votes. The BJP didn't have much stake in the Khairagarh byelection. The Congress, on the other hand, was in a strong position. The result should, however, offer a breather to Bhupesh Baghel who is facing some rift with TS Singhdeo over the chief ministerial post. In all these three states, the BJP is an opposition force to ruling governments which can be said to be better placed to defend their forte. The real twist, however, can be seen in the Bochahan assembly byelection in Bihar where RJD's Amar Paswan defeated the ruling NDA's BJP candidate Baby Kumari by a margin of 36,000 votes. It can be remembered that in Bihar assembly elections, the RJD gave a sharply close fight to NDA. A part of the competition came from the RJD's loyal vote bank of Muslim plus Yadav. However, Tejaswi Yadav can also be credited to be one among the opposition stalwarts who could successfully present an alternative agenda centred around employment and social justice. Again, whether or not the present victory can be attributed to the alternate agenda is debatable. The recent by-elections can be seen as an indicator of the current political momentum for different political parties. The parties must take a hint to chalk out plans for bigger battles that lie ahead.