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After making landfall on the coast of Gujarat on Monday night, Cyclone Takutae has now weakened as it moves over land over Saurashtra, around 180 km southwest of Ahmedabad. By the time this edition goes to print, the storm is expected to have dissipated as it gradually weakens. Named by Myanmar after a type of Gecko, Takutae is not only the first cyclone of 2021, it is also the most severe cyclone to hit the region in at least the last three decades. Though a complete estimation of the death toll would take some time, at least 16 people are known to have died as a result of the cyclone. While the cyclone narrowly missed Mumbai, the city was still hit by winds going at 115 km/h. Torrential rain has also led to waterlogging in the city. Two commercial barges, P305 with 273 on board and GAL Constructor with 137 on board were set adrift off the coast of Mumbai hours before Takutae hit Gujarat. A dramatic rescue effort was mounted by the Indian Navy which has thus far managed to save 177 lives from the first vessel that went adrift. The second ship has been grounded off Mahim. Back in Gujarat, advanced warning for the passage of the cyclone has apparently helped mitigate damage and casualties to a certain extent. Some 2,00,000 people living in low lying areas had been moved to shelters. This, of course, creates its own complications in the middle of India's ongoing Covid wave. Given the current state of India's vaccination campaign, there are fears that people sheltering so close to each other can possibly create new Covid clusters. It's not just the cyclone either. In Mumbai, the accompanying storm that came with the cyclone has not only damaged some of Mumbai's largest vaccination centres, it has also forced authorities to shift 580 Covid positive patients from dedicated centres to hospitals as a precaution. Aggravating Covid risks aside, the accompanying storm and rains have also killed at least six people in Kerala, Karnataka and Goa. Across affected states, power lines have been broken, trees were blown away and houses collapsed. Water-logged roads, choppy seas and fast-moving winds have ensured that movement across the affected states has also been hampered. Power cuts, already a complication in normal time, are a particular concern in the time of Covid where the resulting disruptions from the storm have affected the power supply of Covid care and vaccination centres. In Karnataka, Revenue Minister R Ashoka gave a grim toll of the damage caused by the passage of Cyclone Takutae, stating that the cyclone had destroyed crops on around 2.87 lakh hectares of land. A compensation package of Rs 5 lakh has been announced in the state for those who have had their houses fully damaged and Rs 1 lakh if it has been partially damaged. Additionally, a sum of Rs 10,000 will be given to those who have had floodwater enter their homes. As mentioned above, the full extent of the damage in all its various facets is not currently fully known. But there is something beyond the destruction caused that is troubling about this new cyclone. India is periodically hit by at least a few cyclones that vary in intensity. A significant portion of these cyclones come from the Bay of Bengal, which is a warmer body of water than the Arabian Sea. But Cyclone Takutae could be an indication of a new emerging pattern in cyclones hitting India. Not only has the cyclone hit pre-monsoon as opposed to the usual post-monsoon occurrence, but it is also of a much higher intensity than usual. Takutae is now the fourth cyclone to form in the Arabian Sea in consecutive years. Warm water and humid air are significant factors in amplifying the force of cyclones. And warming waters are the likely cause behind the unexpected intensity of Takutae. While the Bay of Bengal is around 28 degree Celcius as regards surface water temperature, the Arabian Sea is usually a degree or two cooler. Now, studies show that Arabian Sea temperatures are 1.2-1.4 degree Celcius higher than they have been on average in the last 40 years. Not only has this led to an intensification of cyclones forming over the sea, but it has also apparently played a large part in the increase of widespread extreme rainfall events in India in recent years. The problem doesn't end there. Warmer seas don't just lead to more cyclones, they also lead to more unpredictable cyclones. Warmer waters mean that it does not take long for a cyclone to pick up in intensity and failure to properly track these rapid changes can have very significant human costs. And such unexpected and fierce cyclones are only expected to increase in the coming years as the world warms due to excessive carbon emissions. While it would obviously be ideal for humanity to curb carbon emissions and keep such freak weather anomalies in check, it's not a bankable solution. Instead, more realistic short-term solutions would include strengthening our monitoring systems that usually keep an eye out for such major events.

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