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Mixed signals

Mixed signals
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Uttar Pradesh had been in the brightest spotlight among the five states that went for assembly polls but, as the results show, Punjab has come out with the most dramatic outcome. Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party has registered a sweeping victory in the state, bagging second state in its kitty. While the party must be given due credit for eliciting such profound public trust, it is the voters who deserve to be acknowledged — not for bringing any particular party in power but for voting above sectarian lines, in favour of the promises of development. In Punjab, the Congress lost one among its last bastions, thanks to the heavy internal turmoil it witnessed ahead of the polls. Punjab was already declared a losing game for the Bharatiya Janata Party which had been in a somewhat direct conflict with farmers of the state protesting against the three contentious farm laws along Delhi borders. At the same time, it was a defending game for the Congress whose principal rival — the BJP — was apparently ruled out of the contest. To its misery (and to AAP's credit) it conceded its political space to Kejriwal. The congress tried to court farmers' vote, it projected a Dalit face as Chief Minister and also tried hard to ease down the internal rift within the party but nothing worked. Is it a political awakening of sorts among the voters which made them look beyond the narrow confines of political appeasement, political prominence and political proximity? Or is it Kejriwal's finesse who appears to have mastered the art of selling 'education' and 'health' in a political market where divisive and polarising tactics rule the roost? It must be cleared here, however, that Punjab's electorate is historically known for voting beyond petty issues — but 2022 results are indeed a landmark. As Kejriwal has announced his arrival in 'national politics', the real test for him will be in the Gujarat assembly elections where AAP will face the BJP directly. It will also be interesting to see how Arvind Kejriwal manages to balance power within the party as Bhagwant Mann will take charge as the CM of Punjab. Uttar Pradesh — which was being touted as a semi-final ahead of the grand finale of 2024 Lok Sabha elections — has come out with a more or less expected outcome. Landslide victory for the BJP is important but there is much to look beyond the headline outcomes. If one looks forward to ascertaining the trends, victory margin vis-à-vis the 2017 polls would be interesting to watch for. Farmers' protest was seen as a major issue in UP polls as well. As for now, the BJP is leading in all the districts of Lakhimpur Kheri — where the son of a BJP politician allegedly mowed down four farmers. The party also performed handsomely in the region from where farmer leader Rakesh Tikait comes from. But the BJP is reported to have seen a decline of vote-share in farmer-dominant regions — still clinching around 45 per cent votes till a certain point in vote counting. Samajwadi Party, on the other hand, saw an increase in vote share over 2017 in the same areas. Samajwadi Party had suddenly raised its stakes in UP ahead of the polls but UP appeared to be too big a cake for him, and the BJP too big an adversary with its well-oiled political machinery and political backing of the RSS. The decisive factors in UP elections have been along the expected lines. Modi and Shah's campaigns once again worked wonders for the party. Now that Adityanath has emerged as the only CM from the BJP who completed his term and returned again to power in UP, his positioning in the BJP post-elections will be watched keenly. One has to also wait and watch how opposition parties will create greater opportunities for themselves ahead of Lok Sabha elections. Conclusion of UP polls itself heralds the beginning of mission 2024. The BJP is also heading towards a comfortable victory in Uttarakhand, leaving Congress far behind. The saffron party has successfully defended the state but the Chief Ministerial candidate of the party is learnt to be trailing behind. The Congress once again failed to offer a tough contest to the BJP. Goa has been yet another state where Congress failed to put up a strong fight. The BJP, which is emerging as the single biggest party in the state, has announced that it will raise claims to form the government. In the insurgency-hit Manipur, the BJP appears to be successfully defending the state in a multi-cornered contest. The BJP has managed to form a government in 2017 with merely 21 seats in its kitty in the 60-member state assembly. This time around it has won 12 seats and is leading in 13 others. It is likely to form the government with Naga People's Front and other allies. The Congress, which had been in power in the state before the BJP won in 2017, was leading merely on two seats. The assembly elections spell the nightmare for the Congress which 'humbly accepted its defeat'. The BJP has swept across UP and Uttarakhand and is also in the race to form government in Manipur and Goa. The Congress lost the only state it was defending, to AAP. The picture is worrying because there appears to be a lack of pan-India parties that can challenge the ruling party at the Centre in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. More closely and densely elections are fought in a democracy, more beneficial it is for the people. Congress has nothing to lose from here. It remains to be seen if it is ready for revival, yet!

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