In absolute turmoil

Politics in Pakistan is undergoing an absolute turmoil, with all the stakeholders operating on their own — lacking cohesion even at the basic levels. The Prime Minister's close ally, Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri, dismissed the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan on Sunday, citing Article 5 of the Pakistani Constitution, which says "loyalty to the State is the basic duty of every citizen". Further, President Arif Alvi — who belongs to Imran Khan's PTI — followed the PM's own advice to dissolve the Parliament! Opposition too was not far behind when, parallel to the Supreme Court's proceedings on dismissal of no-confidence motion and dissolution of National Assembly, it passed another no-confidence motion with around 200 votes in its 'own session'. The final decision appears to rest in the hands of the Supreme Court which also carries a tainted image. It is worth noting why and how Pakistan's politics has touched such a low where different branches of the government are left in want of cohesion, or even communication, to maintain the country's political structure. Is chaos the only defining element behind the current flux or is there some larger force that is allowing the chaos to unfold? The most powerful determinant in Pakistan's power structure — the Army — appears to remain indifferent and unmoved. As is widely alleged, it was the Army that allowed Imran Khan back in 2018 to break into the alternating forte of Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). It is also an open fact that Imran Khan's effort to place his loyal aide, Lt Gen Faiz Hamid, in charge of the Army didn't go well with the top ranks. Pakistan's Army is known to be strict with its tradition of maintaining a bridge between the executive wing of the government and the military ranks. Political experts believe that Imran Khan's decline was scripted on the same day he tried to interfere in military ranks. Obviously, Pakistan's Army has not issued any direct adverse comment against Imran Khan but its silence itself has been disapproval in essence. One wonders whether the situation would have been the same if the Pakistani Army stood behind Imran Khan. What is unfolding with Imran Khan may be a novice experience for him but the country is well-versed with similar circumstances. To say it a norm would be more accurate as none of the Pakistan's PMs have completed their full term of five years in the past. However, the manner in which the series of events turned out on Sunday was indeed dramatic. To quote Dawn, "No one could have guessed that his (Imran Khan's) last ploy would involve having the democratic order burnt down by a democratically empowered party." The interpretation of the Constitution and democratic values is better left to the Pakistan's Supreme Court which has assured that it will pass a "reasonable judgment." If the SC rules against the Deputy Speaker's dismissal of the no-confidence motion, Imran Khan will have to undergo the trust vote — which he is most likely to lose. In case the Supreme Court decides in favor of the dismissal of a non-confidence motion, the nation may witness a premature election. Firm upon "fighting until the last ball", Imran khan has called a meeting of his party (PTI) members in order to get prepared to fight a 'likely' election. Imran Khan may not have the majority in the Parliament to pass the test of the no-confidence motion but he still has a dedicated supporter base. Is popular support for him wide enough to overshadow the dark phases of the economy that faced double-digit inflation, unemployment, and a bunch of other economic hardships during his reign? Imran Khan's coming to power in 2018 had been a promise of creating an Islamist welfare state. The promises lay shattered today. More importantly, for Imran Khan, the support of the Pakistani Army will be a vital factor even if fresh elections are held. While a lot of drama is being played with all the stakeholders playing their part, in essence, everything again boils down to the fancies of the Army. Pakistani Army, though strong in itself, appears to draw its power from the recurring source of "instable government". While the current turmoil will find its solution in one form or the other, the larger quest of political stability and economic prosperity in Pakistan will be achieved only if the actual power structure is decentralised radically. Can Imran Khan emerge as an independent leader from the current turmoil to lead the nation? Chances are too feeble.