MillenniumPost
Editorial

Hurting differences

Hurting differences
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Two years after the lethal Covid outbreak, when the world has started to regain its footing, countries and global institutions are making endeavours to draw accurate curves and graphs that would tell the realistic story of lives lost during the pandemic. Mirroring this trend, the World Health Organization in its recent report, estimated global excess mortality to be approximately 14.9 million between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. For India, excess mortality is estimated at 4.7 million — comprising one-third of the global estimate and nearly 10 times the official estimates nationally. Excess mortality is essentially the difference between the number of deaths that have occurred and the number that would be expected in the absence of the pandemic based on data from earlier years. It includes deaths that have direct correlation with Covid-19 and the ones resulting from indirect impact of the Covid, including overburdening of hospitals and healthcare systems. Underscoring the vitality of its report, the WHO stated that "measurement of excess mortality is an essential component to understand the impact of the pandemic. Shifts in mortality trends provide decision-makers information to guide policies to reduce mortality and effectively prevent future crises." It is reassuring in a sense that the global health body has stressed upon, and acted towards, ensuring a "better coordination of data systems within countries and for increased international support". Unfortunately, the WHO's endeavour has been dragged into controversy, particularly in India, rather than driving a global consensus towards strengthening data systems for recording the human impact of the pandemic. In fact, the discontent of the Indian government had been a prime factor behind delayed release of the WHO report. The Government of India registered its reservation against the WHO findings, citing its disapproval of the methodology used by the World Health Organisation. It said that the WHO's mathematical modelling-based estimates drawing upon global trends don't reflect the Indian situation and ignore official health estimates. The WHO countered the allegations by saying that it used a variety of sources for the registered number of deaths at the State and Union Territory level — including 17 states and a Union Territory — alongside information provided by journalists based on RTI data. The global health body further clarified that it did not use "predictive covariate model" and the report is based on data from India only. Such resounding differences between the two entities don't auger well for the greater good of the nation and humanity at large. There is a huge difference between the estimates provided by the WHO and the Government of India. Against the estimate of four million deaths by the WHO, the data from Civil Registration System (CRS) — released by the government on Tuesday — estimated only 4.75 lakh excess deaths. The differences need to be addressed by the earliest so that the policy roadmap towards tackling similar threats in the future remains effective and free from glitches. It must be noted here that the inexplicable differences between the Indian government and the WHO estimates don't present a solitary conundrum. In fact, there have been many such discrepancies, with independent research and findings putting the actual death toll during the pandemic multiple times higher than the official estimates. Their findings are further corroborated by the glaring differences between official death estimates and claims sought by family members of the deceased. Furthermore, this disparity follows an uneven trend across the length and breadth of India, with certain states recording and addressing the number of claims that far exceed the official count. Tweaked numbers may not mean much on paper but, on the ground, they might have had a very horrific impact on the lives of people. Affected people must be recognised and assisted in order to bring them out of the shocks of the pandemic. Accuracy of these numbers will also decide the prospects of erecting a strong guard to minimise the impact of any similar crisis that may unfold in the future. More important than the question of who is right and who is wrong, is how can the WHO and Indian government constructively resolve their differences for a better India, better world.

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