Coalition Cracks
The seizure of Yemen’s oil-rich southern territories by the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) marks the most consequential rupture in the country’s civil-war landscape in years. For much of the past two years, Yemen had drifted into a fragile but real lull: violence had ebbed, talks had begun inching forward, and regional powers were recalibrating their roles after a decade of unproductive intervention. That period of uneasy quiet has now been upended. By storming Hadramout and Mahra — provinces that are both strategically located and rich in energy resources — the STC has shattered the delicate balance inside the anti-Houthi camp and created a new centre of gravity in the south. Yemen sits along one of the most critical shipping lanes in the world, and any shift in territorial control reverberates far beyond its borders. This latest escalation, therefore, is not merely a domestic political manoeuvre; it is a development with sweeping implications for the Gulf, the wider Arab region and international trade routes.
The roots of Yemen’s conflict lie in a longstanding fracture that predates the current civil war. When the Houthis overran Sanaa in 2014 and forced the internationally recognised government into exile, the conflict morphed into a battleground for competing visions of Yemen’s identity, power structures and regional alignments. Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened militarily to restore the displaced government, but their objectives diverged over time. The UAE cultivated and armed southern groups, especially the STC, which sought to revive the independent South Yemen that existed until unification in 1990. The internationally recognised government, reliant on Saudi backing, attempted to balance local alliances while preserving its claim over a unified Yemeni state. These fault lines deepened as rival tribal coalitions, militias and provincial authorities forged their own power circles across the south. The STC’s recent territorial advances stem directly from this layered history: a south that never fully integrated into the post-unification structure, a war economy dependent on oil-rich provinces, and a fractured anti-Houthi coalition struggling to maintain coherence.
Against this backdrop, the STC’s advance into Hadramout this month represents a decisive recalculation of power. By taking control of the PetroMasila oil facilities, the STC has assumed command of a key economic artery that fuels southern Yemen. Its forces then pushed eastward into Mahra, a province that borders Oman and provides a crucial land corridor for trade and arms flows. The speed and scale of these operations suggest a strategic intent to redraw territorial realities before any major settlement talks resume. The STC has long argued that southern Yemenese identity and political aspirations cannot be subordinated to a central government that lacks legitimacy on the ground. By controlling ports, energy assets, border crossings and the political capital of Aden, the group has ensured it will be an indispensable actor in any future national negotiation. But these gains have also exposed the widening cracks among the anti-Houthi forces. Government and tribal groups allied with Saudi Arabia had only recently seized PetroMasila to press their own demands for revenue-sharing and governance reforms. Within days, the STC stepped in, capitalising on that moment of discontent. As Saudi troops repositioned and withdrew from bases in Aden, the symbolism became impossible to ignore. The Arab coalition that once presented a unified front against Houthi expansion is now splintering visibly, with the UAE-backed bloc emerging ascendant across the south.
This fragmentation arrives at a sensitive moment. For the first time in years, Yemen’s war had reached a political equilibrium, however imperfect. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia had stopped, cross-border bombardments had reduced, and diplomatic discussions were gaining traction. The recent actions in the south have punctured this fragile calm. They risk dragging Yemen back into a multi-front conflict, inflaming tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, and complicating the stalled peace track that many hoped would eventually bring the country out of its humanitarian nightmare. The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, now face a redefined landscape where partners are acting unilaterally, and territorial alignments are shifting faster than negotiation frameworks can adjust. The Houthis, meanwhile, may see an opportunity in this fragmentation, using it to solidify their control over the north and strengthen their bargaining position. With global shipping already under strain from regional instability, unrest in southern Yemen — home to critical maritime chokepoints along the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea — could inject fresh volatility into international trade routes. What is unfolding in southern Yemen is not simply another chapter in a long and tragic war; it is a new phase that will test regional alliances, reshape internal political dynamics, and influence the security calculus of the entire Persian Gulf. The challenge now for regional powers and international stakeholders is to prevent this rupture from escalating into a wider conflagration, stabilise the competing factions, and steer Yemen back toward the difficult but necessary path of negotiated peace.
