Bayrou’s Final Gamble
France once again stands at the brink of a political rupture, as Prime Minister François Bayrou prepares to face a September 8 confidence vote that could end his short-lived tenure and plunge the Republic deeper into chaos. Bayrou, a centrist who only months ago was projected as a figure capable of stabilising a fragile Assembly, has instead chosen a perilous gamble by tying his fate to an austerity budget that few in parliament and fewer still in the public support. His plan to cut €44 billion in spending in 2026, after last year’s deficit climbed to 5.8 per cent of GDP, was intended to signal fiscal discipline and EU compliance. But in a country already weary of belt-tightening, the symbolism of slashing expenditure — including by abolishing two public holidays — has given his opponents ample ammunition. France’s debt has ballooned to €3.3 trillion, over 114 per cent of GDP, and debt servicing alone eats up 7 per cent of state spending. Bayrou argues that austerity is unavoidable, but his rivals see a golden chance to bring him down. From Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, the opposition has scented blood, and in a divided Assembly where centrists and allied conservatives hold just 210 seats compared to more than 320 across left and right, his survival looks increasingly improbable.
The crisis is not Bayrou’s alone; it reflects the wider unravelling of Emmanuel Macron’s political experiment. Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament last year and call snap elections created the fragmented Assembly that has paralysed governance ever since. Bayrou succeeded Michel Barnier, who was ousted after only three months in office when his own austerity budget collapsed, and now he looks set to follow the same fate. Macron insists he will “serve out his term” and has urged political forces to find “paths of agreement,” but his voice rings hollow in a landscape where consensus seems impossible. Raphaël Glucksmann, a left-wing MEP, has urged Bayrou to withdraw the confidence motion if he genuinely seeks compromise, while Le Pen has bluntly declared that the only way a prime minister can endure is by breaking from “toxic Macronism.” Le Pen herself, convicted of embezzlement and barred from public office for five years, nevertheless continues to lead opinion polls, her legal troubles doing little to blunt the momentum of her party. Mélenchon has likewise demanded that Macron step aside if Bayrou fails. The French president thus finds himself cornered: either appoint a consensus prime minister from traditional left or right, an unlikely feat in this poisonous climate, or dissolve the Assembly yet again and risk another snap election whose results could deliver the extremes to power.
Even if Bayrou were to scrape through the September 8 vote, the storm would hardly be over. The “Bloquons Tout” (Block Everything) movement is preparing a nationwide day of disruption on September 10, a protest wave that could dwarf parliamentary manoeuvring by unleashing France’s combustible street politics. Public anger over the budget’s harsh measures, compounded by disillusionment with the entire political class, is fertile ground for mobilisation. France has a long history of governments falling not only in the Assembly but also on the streets, and the scent of social unrest is unmistakable. Investors and European partners are already rattled by France’s failure to pass a stable budget, a dangerous weakness for the eurozone’s second-largest economy. Bayrou’s collapse, if it comes, will not solve the structural dilemma of reconciling fiscal discipline with political legitimacy. Names like Sébastien Lecornu, Gérald Darmanin, and Catherine Vautrin are floated as successors, but none can conjure a parliamentary majority or calm the streets. France risks becoming ungovernable, trapped in a cycle of collapsing governments and unfinished reforms. The real danger is that institutional fragility, coupled with economic stagnation, will further embolden the extremes and reduce Macron’s already eroded authority to little more than a ceremonial presidency. Unless a broad settlement emerges that allows painful reforms to be carried out with public consent, Bayrou’s fall will be remembered not as an aberration but as another sign that the Fifth Republic is entering a slow and dangerous unravelling.
